A Study On The Causes And Influence Of Foreign Direct Divestment In China

With the continuous evolution of economic globalization,multinational corporations have become the main objects of competition among countries all over the world.Since 1978,China's economy has gradually integrated into the global economic system,through the implementation of reform and opening-up,the continuous introduction of foreign direct investment(FDI)and the development of international trade.After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,developed countries paid more attention to the real economy,returned to manufacturing industry,and attracted transnational corporations to invest.With China's economy changing from high-speed growth to medium-low-speed growth,under the influence of domestic and foreign economic situation,the phenomenon of foreign direct divestment(FDD)in China's real economy has become more and more serious.In 2014,the amount of FDD amounted to 90.60 billion US dollars,which has had a very negative impact on the pattern of foreign investment in China and on the Chinese economy.Therefore,based on the statistical data,the scale of the FDD is calculated,the divestment conditions of FDI are analyzed,the reasons for FDD are studied,and the impacts of FDD are calculated.That is the topic which is valuable to be researched for China.The research on FDI in academic circles at home and abroad can be divided into investment and divestment.The academic circles have begun to study FDI earlier,and the research results are quite rich.However,researches on FDD began in the 1970s.Most of these researches were conducted from the perspective of multinational corporations,based on the micro-data obtained from questionnaire surveys,from the aspects of strategic adjustment of foreign corporations,global production network adjustment,impact of FDD on company value,and process and efficiency of FDD.There are few studies on the scale of FDD from the perspective of the host country.From the host country's point of view,FDD is the return of capital to the home country or transfer to a third country for investment.Therefore,this paper tries to put forward "FDD model" to study FDD,and takes trade friction as an influencing factor or exogenous variable of FDD.In addition,this paper attempts to put forward "the theory of the scale of FDD based on the optimal capital stock",starting from the pursuit of the profit maximization of FDI,and assuming that the production of FDI satisfies the Cobb-Douglas production function,when the actual capital stock is larger than the optimal capital stock,the scale of FDD can be obtained.The theory integrates the cost factor,the host country's domestic policy,the market factor,the domestic and foreign technological progress,the foreign policy,the crisis impact,the trade friction and so on into a unified theoretical analysis frame to analyze the impact of each factor of FDD.Based on this theory,this paper constructs the econometric model,and then analyzes the influence factors of FDD.The results show that the micro-environmental factors such as the cost,tax level and tax preference of FDI,as well as the macro-environmental factors such as China's economic growth rate,government debt level and trade friction degree,etc.,all of them have a significant impact on FDD.In addition,based on China's statistical data,this paper also calculates the impact of FDD on China's economy in terms of production,employment,taxation and balance of payments.The main contributions and innovations of this paper include:the proportion of FDD in the past years,the amount of FDD of different industries,major provinces and cities in China are calculated.The FDD model is put forward to analyze the influence of trade friction on FDD.It establishes the theory of the scale of FDD based on the optimal capital stock,and makes an empirical analysis.The economic effect of FDD in China is calculated.