Incremental Input-output Tables For Fujian Province:Compilation Practices And Empirical Analysis

The input-output technique has been widely used in economic analysis since 1936,and developing and perfecting continuously in practice.As an important analysis method,the input-output method can reflect the national economic departments in the number of dependent relationship between its input and output,plays an important role in economic analysis,policy simulation,economic forecasting and decision-making and economic control etc...However,the traditional input-output technique has its own limitations.For example,the traditional input-output model illustrates the relationship between the industrial sectors the same year,but social production is a dynamic process of continuous change and development which will restrict the application of static model.Therefore,extending the input-output method to build a dynamic input-output model is especially urgent,the incremental input-output model is one of the effective ways.First,sort out the domestic and foreign scholars'research developments and achievement on the input-output analysis,determine the research methods and contents.Second,On the basis of department reclassification and price index revision,using the late-st edition of 2012 input-output table(139 departments),combined with 2002(122 depart-ments)and 2007(144 departments)input-output table,compiling two-stage incremental input-output tables(2002-2007,2007-2012)of Fujian province.Again,for the scientific definition of economic development of the Fujian province,through calculating related indicators with 2007-2012 incremental input-output table.Finally,based on the input-output basic model,by using the theory of structure decomposition technique to decompose the added value,solve the quantitative calculation problem that final demand,technological progress and other factors influencing the economic growth.In order to further study the final demand's contribution to economic growth,this paper continues to decompose the final demand,constructing the structure decomposition model including three elements:consumption,investment and net exports.The empirical analysis results show that Fujian province is still in the extensive stage of growth mode,economic growth mostly depends on investment driven,the lack of consumption demand and net export contribution are the key problem to be solved in the future,and the frail role of technological progress has become the bottleneck restricting stable economic development.As for the future development,the government should strengthen scientific and technological progress and laborer quality two aspects of "soft"investment;attaching importance to policy support,formulate long-term industry development programing according to the law of consumption structure upgrading;maintain a moderate investment scale,specify investment behavior,establish the investment mechanism with market demand oriented.