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Empirical Analysis Of China's Real Estate Investment And Economic Growth In The Interactive Relationship

Posted on:2006-10-15Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:S P HeFull Text:PDF
GTID:2199360185967061Subject:Quantitative Economics
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Real estate industry is the precondition and basis of the economy, and so its development holds the balance of the national economy. In China, the real estate industry has grown rapidly as a rising industry, especially after it's has been emphasized its role in stimulating growth of the national economy. From the angle of economic theory, investment, as the most fluctuated part of the aggressive demand, stimulates economic growth strongly. Real estate investment is an important part of the aggressive demand, so, its development plays significant role in stimulating economic growth too.Using econometric method to analyse the interaction between housing investment and national economic growth, we can understand the position of housing investment in national economy better. This paper made an empirical study on the relationship between real investment and economic growth, using the multivariate vector autoregressive model and time varying parameter model. The conclusion shows that: as the basic and supporting industry, the real estate industry works as a weatherglass of the national economy, and its fluctuation has more close relationship with the national economy.1. Using the time varying parameter model of the housing investment to GDP, interest rate and the loan amount, the paper has such conclusions: GDP has positive and crucial impact on the housing investment. Because of the structural change of the housing investment, its GDP elasticity is decrescent. From this we know, with the development and perfection of the real estate market, the real estate industry has more and more strong ability to withstand shocks, on the other hand, gets smaller impact from GDP.2. Interest has negative impact on the housing investment; the housing investment has decrescent positive loan amount elasticity. Loan is an important part of real estate industry capital, so, we can control the speed of the housing investment adopt controlling the loan amount.Using the time varying parameter model of GDP to the housing investment, this...
Keywords/Search Tags:Housing Investment, Economic Growth, State Space Mode, Multivariate Vector Autoregressive Model
PDF Full Text Request
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