Research On Contagion Effect And Evaluation Of Associated Credit Risk In Supply Chain

In the era of credit economy,credit risk is the main risk in the field of market economy.This paper calls the economic subject that has credit transaction activity as credit subject.The correlation between credit subjects makes credit risk extremely infectious.For example,the Asian financial crisis,the US subprime crisis,the European debt crisis,and the "collapse wave" of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in Zhe Jiang,Shan Dong,Jiang Su and other places in China are mostly caused by credit risk contagion caused by correlation.The credit risk contagion caused by the correlation between credit subjects will affect the stability of the financial market.It has become an important risk source in the field of modern credit risk.With the economic globalization and the continuous refinement of industrial division of labor,the enterprise management mode has gradually developed from the traditional "vertical integration" mode to the "horizontal integration" supply chain mode In the context of supply chain,there is an obvious correlation between enterprises in the supply chain,and the characteristics of "credit community" are very significant.The default of some enterprises in the supply chain may lead to an increase in the default probability of other enterprises in the supply chain through the association relationship in the supply chain,thus causing the associated credit risk in the supply chain.The contagion path of associated credit risks in the supply chain is more subtle and complex,more contagious,more widespread,and more harmful to the financial system.In recent years,the credit crisis of HaiNan airlines,Suntech,BoHai steel,Shield Ann,ChengXing and other enterprises has caused heavy losses for many enterprises in the supply chain and financial institutions,which has drawn extensive attention from the industry and academia on the credit risks associated with the supply chain,and warned Commercial Banks on the importance of strengthening credit risk management for customers in the supply chain.With the escalating trade disputes between China and the United States,the macro business environment of enterprises is facing greater challenges and uncertainties,the globalization strategy,production and operation costs and profit margins are greatly impacted,and the risk of credit default or even bankruptcy is increased.For example,in China,the trade tension between China and the United States has affected the main business of communication giants such as ZTE and Huawei,and affected many related enterprises and financial institutions in the supply chain.In this context,financial institutions should pay more attention to the associated credit risks and their contagion effects in the supply chain to maintain the stability of financial order.In order to correctly understand the associated credit risk in the supply chain,reveal the inherent contagion mechanism of the associated credit risk in the supply chain,measure the contagion effect of the associated credit risk in the supply chain,and explore the more effective method of evaluating the associated credit risk in the supply chain,this paper makes a series of researches on the contagion effects and risk evaluation of related credit risks in the supply chain,the main work is embodied in the following aspects.First,based on the dual-channel financing model of commercial bank credit and trade credit in the supply chain,the interpersonal relationship between enterprise managers in the supply chain is the starting point,this paper reveals the contagion mechanism of the associated credit risk in the supply chain under the interpersonal relationship,and constructs the model of the contagion intensity of the associated credit risk in the supply chain under the interpersonal association.The influence of different interpersonal correlation intensity on the contagion intensity of associated credit risk in supply chain is discussed.Furthermore,this paper constructs the credit risk model of Commercial Banks under interpersonal relationship,and studies the influence mechanism of interpersonal relationship on credit risk of Commercial Banks.Second,based on the supply chain dual-channel financing model,in view of the multiple correlations such as trade association,asset association and interpersonal association in the supply chain,this paper reveals the contagion mechanism of the associated credit risk in the supply chain,constructs the associated credit risk contagion intensity model in the supply chain,and discusses the trade association,assets,interpersonal relation and associated chain outside market impact of contagion effects.Furthermore,the spillover effect of associated credit risk in supply chain on Commercial Banks is discussed when Commercial Banks don't identify the relationship between enterprises in the supply chainThird,in the supply chain buy-back guarantee financing mode,based on the dual Stackelberg game of commercial banks,suppliers and retailers,on a single two-tier supply chain consisting of a supplier and retailer association based on analyzing the mechanism of credit risk contagion,build the associated credit risk contagion effects on supply chain model and spillover effect derivative model,studies the interaction between operation decision-making in supply chain and commercial bank credit decision-making,and the simulation tool was used to study the internal and external contagion effect of the associated credit risk in supply chain and its main influencing factors.Fourth,from the perspective of the complex supply chain system constituted by n enterprises in the supply chain,this paper applies graph theory and fuzzy preference theory to construct a kind of credit risk assessment method based on trade credit risk contagion(TCRC)in the supply chain for the associated credit risk Contagion network formed by trade credit.The credit risk of the enterprise in the supply chain is divided into:the "own credit risk",and the "(trade)credit risk contagion".The basic model of"own credit risk" evaluation and the derivative model of "(trade)credit risk contagion"evaluation are established,and the two kinds of evaluation results are integrated,and the credit risk of enterprises in the supply chain is evaluated comprehensively.Then,it reveals the contagion effect of associated credit risk in the supply chain based on trade credit risk contagion(TCRC).Fifth,Commercial Banks provide loans to suppliers and suppliers provide trade credit to retailers for the two-tier supply chain composed of the supplier and the retailer who are subject to capital constraints.Based on the tripartite game analysis framework of Commercial Banks,the supplier and the retailer,and taking the "participation constraint" of Commercial Banks and the "incentive compatibility constraint" of the supplier as the constraints,this paper constructs the credit decision model of Commercial Banks in the structure of information symmetry and information asymmetry,and discusses the influence of trade credit on Commercial Banks credit decision-making and the difference of credit decision-making in two kinds of information structure.