The Research On The Contagion Of Credit Risk Between Enterprises In The Supply Chain

With the increasingly fierce competition of market, competition amongenterprises is gradually replaced by the competition between the supply chain. Thesupply chain is also facing increasing challenges and risks. Among them, thecorporate credit risk in the supply chain not only affects the enterprise itself, but alsospread to the other enterprises in the supply chain, thus affecting the normal operationand competitiveness of the supply chain as a whole. When the supply chain is a whole,the credit risk of a enterprise in the supply chain will transmiss, resulting in thesystemic risk of the supply chain. The theory of supply chain risk management andsystematic technology is just emerging, and it has become the core elements ofconstraints to the business survival and development.Among them, one of theproblems faced by the modern enterprise is how to effectively prevent thetransmission of credit risk of the supply chain.Preventing the transmission of creditrisk of the supply chain has been in an important position in the business strategy, andan important factorto enhance the overall level of management.On this condition, this paper ifrst defines the concept of the infection of creditrisk among enterprises in the supply chain, then uses the theory to analyze the modesof transmission of credit risk of the supply chain.Then using the price linkage of theBaosteel supply chain empirically test the spread of credit risk.At last,use enterpriseportfolio value at risk and expected shortfall of Baosteel supply chain to calculateinfection of the credit risk under the Supply Chain. Through the analysis above，thispaper confirm the credit risk contagion phenomenon between enterprises in the supplychain.And the risk transfers between two channels: the ifrs channel is by direct actualbusiness channel, The second channel is indirect channel,which mainly reffers toinfection due to external factors or investor behavior.And on condition ofcontagion,the credit risk of enterprise and its portfolio of supply chain can becalculated by the systemic risk value of enterprise and expected shortfall.Theinnovation of this paper is that we introduce contagion of credit risk to analyze therisk of supply chain, and use the theory to discusses models of credit risk contagion in the supply chain, and this paper examines transmission effect of the risk in thesupply chain.This study is of great importance to the credit portfolio of supply chaincompanies, especially the correlation between the corporate.In addition，this paper isalso positive for credit irsk assessment and management in the supply chain.