Research On The Measurement And Contagion Of Credit Risk Between Enterprises In The Supply Chain

Martin.Christopher, the supply chain management expert of Britain, pointed out that the competition is not among the enterprises but supply chains in twenty-first century in 1992. With the development of supply chain management mode, the credit risk of enterprise has captured more and more attention in the supply chains between the industrial and academic. In particularly, the infection of credit risk among enterprises in the supply chain had been affecting the stability and sensitivity of the whole supply chain. At present, one of the most difficult problems the supply chain enterprises is how to measure and study the credit risk of supply chain effectively. So, prevention and control of credit risk contagion in supply chain has been playing an important role in the business strategies.First of all, this paper reviews related literature of credit risk and the credit risk contagion between firms in the supply chain and discusses the cause, path and selective mechanism of credit risk contagion between enterprises in supply chain. Secondly, compared the KMV model with the others'model and combined with the actual situation of China's current credit markets, KMV model is selected and corrected as the evaluation model of listed enterprise credit risk in supply chains. Finally, according to empirical research of credit risk of listed companies between iron and medicine industry, the thesis utilized association rules mining method to research on credit risk contagion among listed companies from industry supply chain. the analysis of association rules may be help to find the credit risk of the supply chain transmission mechanism, so enterprises can adjust the style of collaboration and to prevent the spread of credit risk in the supply chain.The studies showed that:the overall level of credit risk in the pharmaceutical distribution industry is lower than that of the steel industry in the supply chain. But the frequency and intensity of credit risk contagion in the pharmaceutical supply chain was higher than that in the iron industry. There are three important factors which have affected the infection of credit risk in supply chains, the direct business relations of upstream and downstream enterprises, the relationship between assets, acro-economic environment.