The Development Dilemma And Way Out Of Latin American Countries

This article attempts to use the theory of evolutionary development economics to interpret the economic development dilemma of Latin American countries.In the1970 s,Latin American countries were the most promising developing countries to catch up with developed countries.However,the debt crisis that broke out in the1980 s seemed to prove that the glory of the past was just a flash in the pan.The crisis reversed the previous good catch-up momentum and contributed to a major transformation of the economic development model.Because of the outbreak of the crisis,people rejected the previous import substitution industrialization development model,and hoped for the development model of neoliberalism.However,neoliberalism failed to bring Latin American countries back on track to catch up,but instead kept the Latin American economy at a low level of growth for a long time.Levels are hovering,and crises and turbulence continue,and Latin American countries have fallen into the predicament of the so-called "middle income trap." At the same time,there has been a setback in society,poverty and two-level differentiation have intensified,and social conflicts have further intensified.Dissatisfied with the failure of neoliberalism,some Latin American countries have begun to explore new development paths since the 21 st century.Among them,Venezuela's 21 st century socialism is the most prominent.This new development theory and model is aimed at social conflicts with deep grievances.It attempts to alleviate social conflicts and reduce poverty through reforms in the redistribution field.In the economic field,it implements nationalization and turns private property rights in important sectors into state-owned property rights,in order to redistribute social wealth.However,this development model quickly fell silent after the promising momentum in the first decade of the 21 st century,and these countries fell into deeper chaos.The people of Latin American countries have never given up their efforts to change their destiny.They have great enthusiasm for the theories and models that may change the backward status quo.Latin American countries are therefore known as the test field for the development of economic theory.However,Latin American countries have yet to find the right development path that can really make it catch up.Why have all development models since import substitution industrialization failed in Latin America? How do we view the growth dilemma facing Latin American countries? Where is the breakthrough and way out of the growth dilemma? TThis articletakes the development perspective of evolutionary development economics as a guide and adopts a long-term historical perspective,based on the development model since the period of import substitution industrialization,it extracts three key inspection perspectives of evolutionary development economics named market,technology and system,making a long-term longitudinal analysis of economic development and horizontal analysis comparing East Asian economic development.It is concluded that the mode of production or production structure is the fundamental reason why Latin American countries are stuck in a low growth dilemma.Economic development is specific to the production structure,and only high-quality production activities with increasing returns can bring about development,while the production structure in Latin America specializes in low-end,away from technological centers,with constant or diminishing production activities.It is precisely because of the low-end production structure that is far from the technology center that Latin American countries lack the internal demand for knowledge,technology and innovation,and cannot start the economic growth engine of technology and innovation;these low-end production activities are not paid with changes or diminishing returns,their product market is basically completely competitive,and it is difficult to provide a basis for the increase of national welfare;these production activities have few production links,short industrial chains,provide limited job opportunities,and it is difficult to form synergy between industries.The reason for this production structure lies in the neoliberal reforms since the1990 s,which caused Latin American countries to abandon the protection and support of high-end industries before industrialization was completed,and to conduct specialized division of labor and production in accordance with the principle of comparative advantage.The failure of the import substitution industrialization was not due to the government's choice and intervention in the economy.For developing countries,government intervention was a prerequisite for catching up and developing,but because of deviations in the way and direction of government intervention,it does not follow the internal logic of industrial development,creating an efficient large-scale market for it and establishing corresponding endogenous technological capabilities.For Latin American countries,to break through the economic development dilemma,it has to seek major changes in the production field,comprehensively rely on tools that are conducive to production and innovation,such as industrial policy,trade policy and technical policy,toestablish and develop high-quality production activities and change current production structure.