Research On Influencing Factors And Trends Of Agricultural Machinery Demand In Jilin Province Under The Background Of Rural Rejuvenation

Rural revitalization is an important strategy made by the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,and an important measure to promote China's transformation from a major agricultural country to a powerful agricultural country.The rural revitalization strategy will ultimately realize the rural "prosperity of industry,effective governance,civilization of rural culture,ecological livability and prosperity of life",among which the industrial prosperity is the driving force and plays an important role in promoting the realization of the strategic vision.Agricultural mechanization is one of the key ways to achieve industrial prosperity,is the material conditions and important basis for agricultural modernization development,the development of agricultural mechanization accelerated the pace of rural revitalization,leading agriculture into a new pattern of modernization,intelligence and network.Without mechanization,there will be no agricultural modernization,let alone industrial prosperity,and the change of agricultural machinery demand is an important basis for the development direction and process of agricultural mechanization.Therefore,under the background of rural revitalization,it is of great significance to study and judge the structural changes of agricultural machinery demand for promoting the development of agricultural mechanization and the realization of industrial revitalization.As a major agricultural province in China,agricultural mechanization is the important material base to realize agricultural modernization and rural revitalization.Based on this,this article is set in rural revitalization strategy,with agricultural machinery demand as the research target,in combing the domestic and foreign research literature and field,on the basis of field research,using the system theory,production factor theory,scale economy theory,the theory of induced technological innovation,the grey correlation analysis,regression analysis and Logit,combination forecasting model and dynamic simulation model of Jilin province agricultural machinery demand factors and trends of comprehensive study,in order to Jilin province agricultural machinery equipment industry and the development of agricultural mechanization to provide policy recommendations.The main research work and conclusions are as follows:(1)The interactive mechanism between rural revitalization strategy and agricultural machinery demand.This paper analyzes the strategy of rural revitalization and the demand of agricultural machinery systematically,and regards them as a whole,using system theory to innovate the concept of the HCD model,design the “ISRS” model of the rural revitalization strategy and agricultural machinery demand system.The results show that: Industrial revitalization is the key to rural revitalization,agricultural modernization is the fundamental way to achieve industrial revitalization,agricultural mechanization is the basic guarantee to promote agricultural modernization,and agricultural machinery demand is the main driving force to achieve agricultural mechanization.(2)Research on characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural machinery demand at the national level.This paper uses the macro data of the statistical yearbook and takes the total power of agricultural machinery as the dependent variable.The subsidies for agricultural machinery purchase,the price of agricultural machinery,the service price of agricultural machinery,the income of farmers,the price of agricultural products,the quantity of agricultural labor force and the total area of planting crops are all independent variables.The paper uses the grey correlation analysis and the multiple linear regression analysis to explore the main factors affecting the demand of agricultural machinery in China.The empirical results of the two models are consistent with each other.Finally,it is found that the main factors affecting the demand level of agricultural machinery in China are agricultural labor quantity(0.474),per capita net income of rural households(0.457),agricultural machinery purchase subsidies(0.027),and agricultural machinery price index(-0.004).Among them,agricultural machinery purchase subsidy is the main policy embodiment of rural revitalization strategy.(3)Analysis on the influencing factors and characteristics of agricultural machinery demand of farmers in Jilin Province.Based on the micro survey data,this paper summarizes the characteristics of agricultural machinery demand of farmers in Jilin Province,and uses the binary Logit model to analyze the influencing factors from different production links and different types of farmers.Finally,it is concluded that the demand for agricultural machinery in the field of cultivated land is affected by gender,age,road conditions,landform features,and policy subsidies;the demand for agricultural machinery in the field of sowing seeds is affected by age and geomorphic characteristics;the demand for agricultural machinery in the harvest is affected by two factors,road conditions and geomorphic characteristics.At the same time,this paper believes that the two main forms of farmer's agriculture-oriented and agriculture-supplemented are not only affected by internal characteristics,but also to a large extent by external characteristics including road conditions,terrain characteristics and other factors.This paper argues that agricultural machinery demand is not only affected by internal characteristics,but also affected to a large extent by external characteristics such as road conditions and terrain features.(4)Analysis of the influencing factors and characteristics of agricultural machinery demand of agricultural machinery service organization in Jilin Province.According to the agricultural machinery service organization,this paper divides the agricultural machinery service organization of Jilin Province into agricultural machinery users,agricultural machinery service organization of class I and agricultural machinery service organization of class II,constructs the influencing factor model of agricultural machinery demand of agricultural machinery service organization,and uses logistic regression analysis.Finally,the three types of agricultural machinery service organizations have different influencing factors in agricultural machinery demand,but gender,the health status of agricultural machinery decision-makers and agricultural machinery purchase subsidies have significant influence on each type of agricultural machinery service organizations,indicating that the policy of rural revitalization strategy has good radiation.(5)Forecast of the demand for agricultural machinery in Jilin Province under the background of rural revitalization.This paper builds an index system of agricultural machinery demand level,and forecasts the level of agricultural machinery equipment,operation and service based on the situation of agricultural and rural development in Jilin Province from 2004 to 2018.In addition,according to the "Jilin Provincial Rural Revitalization Plan(2018-2022)",add the variable of policy implementation level,and build a dynamic simulation model of Jilin Province's agricultural machinery demand policy.The regression results show that the annual growth rate of controlling labor productivity is 1%,3% and 5%,the annual growth rate of total power of agricultural machinery is 4.7%,7.5% and 12.7% respectively,the annual growth rate of comprehensive grain production capacity is 4.9%,5.9% and 7% respectively,and the annual growth rate of mechanized farming level is 0.9%,1.1% and 1.3% respectively.The dynamic simulation model is used to control the annual growth of comprehensive grain productivity according to 1%,3% and 5%,the annual growth of total power of agricultural machinery is 4.8%,7.6% and 9.3% respectively,the annual growth of agricultural labor productivity is 1.36%,3.14% and 6.23% respectively,and the annual growth of mechanized farming level is 0.93%,1.09% and 1.28% respectively.The results of the model show that the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy has a strong promoting effect on the development of agricultural machinery demand in Jilin Province,and the implementation of the policy is conducive to the development of agricultural mechanization and the improvement of agricultural machinery demand level in Jilin Province.(6)Experience summary of agricultural mechanization in developed countries.This paper analyzes the development experience of agricultural mechanization in Japan and the United States,and provides reference and inspiration for the development of agricultural mechanization in Jilin Province under the background of rural revitalization.During the development of agricultural mechanization,Jilin Province requires more government support,improves farmers' organization level,and attaches importance to the scientific research systems.In conclusion,based on the above from the macro level factors affecting the development of agricultural mechanization research,micro impact demand in Jilin province farmers farm machinery,agricultural machinery operation service organizations of agricultural machinery research demand factors,the American agricultural mechanization development experience for reference,the author aimed at rural revitalization of Jilin province under the background of the agricultural industry development stepped up efforts to develop new farmers,and strive to solve the problem of who is going to land;We will improve policies to subsidize the purchase of agricultural machinery and guide the transformation of rural production patterns.Actively promote the construction of agricultural machinery service system,build the whole mechanized operation service organization;To promote the construction of rural productive infrastructure and ensure the external environment of agricultural mechanization production;Strengthen the safety supervision of agricultural machinery,stabilize the balance of agricultural machinery equipment market;We will accelerate scientific and technological innovation in agricultural machinery and promote the development of high-quality,high-efficiency agricultural mechanization in all areas.