| The purpose of this study is to examine the contextual determinants of electoral choice, which has largely been characterized by strong regional variation, in recent Korean election from the 14th national election in 1992 to the 16th national election in 2000. In particular, this study seeks to answer four related questions: (1) What is an adequate theoretical framework for analyzing electoral choice with strong spatial variations?; (2) To what extent do contextual variables matter in determining electoral choice?; (3) Are there any different patterns of contextual effects as electoral determinants across parties and time periods?; (4) What other factors are important electoral determinants?;To answer these questions, this study test several hypotheses derived from main theoretical frameworks of voting behavior: (1) the Social Cleavage Model; (2) the Party Identification Model; (3) the Rational Economic Model; (4) the Regional Cleavage Model; (5) the Contextual Model. These hypotheses are tested by utilizing a series of multinomial logit, logit, and ordered logit model along with calculation of predicted probability.;Overall, strongest and most consistent effect of the Contextual Model is confirmed. That is, Korean voters are not isolated individual when they cast their ballot for parties. Rather, they are embedded in social (political) network, which play a crucial role in voter's electoral decision. |
