Local leadership in democratic transition: Paving the way or barring the route

The United Nations has become progressively involved in peacebuilding activities in post-conflict countries over the last two decades. A general formula has emerged for the design of these interventions which includes ceasefire, disarmament and demobilization and democratic elections. The key component to these missions is the democratic transition, which is presumed to increase stability in the country. The current transition paradigm assumes that the participation of local leadership in the process will result in their transition to democratic leaders. Previous research primarily focused on the impact of the international community on the transition, while little attention is given to the role of the local leadership. This study evaluated the current transition model in order determine its applicability. The study used embedded multi-case study analysis to evaluate the role of the local leadership in three case countries: Cambodia, Liberia and Burundi. The threes cases demonstrated that the local leadership had significant impact on each component of the transition and were in fact directing the process. Furthermore, the outcomes of the transition were predictable based on the behavior of the local leadership throughout the phases of the conflict and peace process. The results of the analyses were utilized to correct the post-conflict transition model. The corrected model highlights the significant impact that the local leadership has on each component of the process and the influence of the context in which the leadership is operating. The corrected model was applied to three secondary cases in order to verify its general applicability. The results of this study will assist policymakers in the improved design and implementation of post-conflict interventions.