State and society in China's democratic transition: Confucianism, Leninism, and economic development

Of the two major types of democratic transitions (regime-initiated and opposition-induced) generalized by the transition theories, China has a greater chance for the former. China is likely to have a top-down democratic transition guided by the Communist Party leadership, as opposed to a bottom-up transition imposed by societal forces, given its existing state-society configuration of state domination over society. This power structure is a function primarily of three major factors: the Confucian tradition, the Leninist institutional legacy, and the economic development imperative.; The Confucian tradition has provided China with a philosophical foundation for state domination over society by empowering the elite to rule and by denying individuals the right to political dissent. The Leninist institutional legacy has strengthened the party-state by maintaining a ruling bloc in which all powers are held in the hands of the Communist Party and by blocking the emergence of civil society essential for a bottom-up transition. China's economic development imperative has reinforced the state's power by requiring a strong state authority to manage the economy and to maintain stability, which is inconsistent with a society-driven democratic transition. This established state-society configuration suggests that China is unlikely to witness a bottom-up transition because major societal actors (the political opposition, the people and intellectuals, and the entrepreneurial class) lack the strength to challenge party rule and advance democracy from below. It is instead more likely for the party leadership to usher China into a transition to democracy because the Party is the sole political entity capable of governing China and carrying out needed but potentially destabilizing democratic reforms.; There is evidence for a likely top-down democratic transition in China. Significant political progress at different levels has been made under the party leadership. Since the early 1980s, democratic elections have been introduced at lower levels of government on the party's own initiatives. The party leadership has affirmed the possibility of extending the system of democratic elections to higher levels. It seems reasonable therefore to anticipate that general elections will be carried out at the provincial and partially national levels in the not very distant future.