| This dissertation uses two natural experiments in American economic history to test theories of fertility decline. In the first, the emancipation of slaves in the United States between 1860 and 1865 represented a shock to the household labor force of Southern slaveowners. Under general assumptions about the household production function, the economic value of the household's own children should have been affected as a result. I measure the change in fertility of Southern slaveowners after the war and find that their post-emancipation fertility correlates strongly with the predicted impact of emancipation on their motivation to bear children. Importantly, similar patterns cannot be discerned in pre-war data. This result is corroborative evidence for theories of fertility decline focusing on the economic value of children.;In the second experiment, I use the particular circumstances surrounding the industrialization of South Carolina to measure the impact of industrialization on fertility. South Carolina industrialization occurred in rural areas, allowing me to identify the effect of industrialization separately from urbanization. In addition, the location of textile mills was driven by factors other than the local labor force. The results indicate that fertility in industrialized townships fell following the arrival of textile mills, but the in-migration of low-fertility households appears to be the driver of this result. These results give weak evidence to support theories of fertility decline focusing on industrialization as the first mover. |
