Economic Analysis Of Low Fertility Rate In China

The facts of population development in many countries in the world show that the improvement of the level of economic development is often accompanied by the decline of fertility level.China’s birth population has fallen sharply in recent years,while the aging is increasing.In order to deal with the problem of "getting old before getting rich",China has timely adjusted its fertility policy,but the development trend of low fertility rate has not been effectively improved.Population is the basic,overall,long-term and strategic element of regional development.If the low fertility rate is not effectively reversed in the long run,it will pose a major challenge to the regional economic development.In the context of the low fertility rate of the modern population transformation,boosting the fertility level has become the key link to ensure the sustained and healthy development of the regional economy and society.Fertility has always been an important proposition in economic research,and the economic analysis of fertility has important reference value for deepening the understanding of the law of population evolution and the formulation of regional economic development policies.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the economic reasons for the formation of modern low fertility society,so as to provide reference for understanding and solving the problem of low fertility.First of all,based on the consumer choice theory and the public choice theory,this paper constructs the fertility selection models of private "cost-benefit" analysis and social "cost-benefit" analysis respectively.Through comparative static analysis to explain the internal mechanism of fertility decline,the study holds that,compared with the private "cost-benefit" analysis of fertility choice,considering fertility positive externalities can better explain the formation of low fertility society.In the reality that fertility costs are mainly borne by families,modern fertility behavior has become a positive externality of cost privatization and income socialization,and the increase in fertility costs caused by positive externalities of fertility is an important economic reason to depress the social fertility level.Secondly,in view of the fact that the economic benefits of childbearing are mainly old-age benefits,this paper uses social endowment insurance expenditure to characterize the socialization of reproductive benefits,using the inter-provincial panel data of 31 provinces(cities)in China from 2006 to 2019,through the construction of panel vector error correction(PVEC)model to empirically test the impact of positive externalities of fertility on fertility level.The endowment function in the modern social security system is an important reason for the socialization of reproductive benefits.There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the basic social endowment insurance expenditure and the birth rate,which characterizes the socialization of reproductive benefits.At the full sample level,every 1%increase in the proportion of social endowment insurance expenditure can explain the decline of the birth rate by 0.49 ‰.Further sub-sample study found that with the evolution of the level of economic development.The effect of the basic social endowment insurance expenditure on the birth rate is inverted U-shaped.In the economically developed areas where the social security system is relatively perfect,the increase in the proportion of the existing social endowment insurance expenditure will have a more significant negative impact on the fertility level.In addition,the study of this paper also shows that there are primitive factors to boost fertility level in the process of economic and social development,but it is affected by birth cost,consumption preference,income distribution,population structure and other inhibitory factors.The decline of fertility level is inevitable and trend.At present,the economic constraint of high fertility cost on family limited income is the main realistic reason for the decline of fertility level.The research shows that in the environment of modern socialized large-scale production,the complete externalization of reproductive costs and the complete internalization of reproductive benefits are not realistic.The general ideas used to solve the externality problems in economics(property rights transaction,taxation,subsidies,etc.)cannot be directly used to solve the positive externalities of fertility.Based on the research conclusion of this paper,and combined with the practice of fertility policy at home and abroad,in view of the problem of low fertility rate in China,the study suggests that: first of all,we should speed up the return of fertility decision-making power to the family and clearly define the family’s reproductive autonomy,which is the primary institutional arrangement to boost fertility level.Secondly,we should speed up the comprehensive deepening of market economic reform in education,housing,health care and other fields to reduce fertility costs and eliminate the institutional factors that cause fertility costs to rise;finally,we should speed up the improvement of the existing social endowment insurance system and gradually establish a family-based diversified way of providing for the aged,so as to promote the internalization of fertility benefits,so as to promote private fertility goals closer to social collective fertility goals.