Modeling the driving forces of land use and land cover changes along the upper Yangtze River in China

Induced by high population density, rapid but uneven economic growth, and historic resource exploitation, China's upper Yangtze basin has witnessed remarkable changes in land use and cover, which have resulted in severe environmental consequences, such as flooding, soil erosion, and habitat loss. This research depicts the land use pattern and examines the driving forces of land use and land cover change (LUCC) along the Jinsha River, one primary section of the upper Yangtze, aiming at better understanding the complex human and nature processes underlying the LUCC and to provide policy implications on more sustainable land use and environmental protection.;Using land use data derived from remotely sensed images and second-hand survey and statistics covering 31 counties over 5 time points from 1975 to 2000, the research first constructs a fractional logit model to empirically examine the effects of socioeconomic and institutional factors on changes for the share of cropland, forestland, and grassland. Next, the research develops a cropland structural model and a forestland structural model respectively to further investigate the complex human and natural processes underlying the LUCC. Cropland structural model illustrates that cropland use interacts with grain production and agricultural technological progress and meanwhile the environmental consequence of the land uses also imposes significance feedbacks.;Forestland structural model analyzes the forestland change in consideration of its interrelationships with stocking volume and timber production. Results illustrate the critical role of agricultural technological change in producing food on a limited cropland base, highlight the importance of institutions and policies---such as forest ownership, food self-sufficiency policy, forest and soil conservation projects, and also show the significant effects of population expansion, industry development, and better market access and natural factor on the LUCC.;The research not only improves our understanding of the complex human and natural connections in the LUCC process, but also implies that understanding multiple driving forces and their different impacts on the different land use will help prioritize and balance various policies and actions in accomplishing a more satisfactory goal of land use. The research thus provides some suggestions on supporting the agricultural technological progress, reforming the collective forestland tenure, encouraging the market development and expanding the environmental protection programs. In observation of limitations of this research, the future research directions are also discussed.