What Impacts Will Uncertain and Important Drivers Have on the Structure-Conduct-Performance of Idaho's Primary Forest Products Industry

What does the future hold for Idaho's Primary Forest Products Industry (PFPI), an industry comprised of logging contractors, mills, and commercial forestland owners? The ability to anticipate future impacts and drivers of Idaho's forest products industry would be valued information for Idaho's logging contractors and milling sectors. An objective of this research is to implement a futures research study by constructing plausible future scenarios so as to assist in the strategic planning within the primary forest products industry of Idaho. The forest products industry requires this knowledge to help in shaping perceptions, alternatives and choices about the future. Idaho's primary forest products industry has experienced tremendous raw material supply chain disruptions in the past twenty years, resulting in a severe decline in stumpage supply from federal lands in Idaho. Idaho's primary forest products industry has now fallen back to its current structure which has fewer, geographically dispersed milling facilities that are located near reliable supplies of reasonably priced state and private raw material sources. The forest products industry of Idaho can be characterized by many atomistic sellers (logging contractors) and few concentrated buyers (mills). There appears to be too many automated and efficient logging contractors for the available supply of stumpage. Continued loss of markets, loss of mills, and mill consolidation is leaving fewer options for the remaining logging contractors to effectively optimize their businesses. Three futures scenarios were developed that outline potential future scenarios for Idaho's primary forest products industry. In addition to U.S. national housing starts, access to reliable supplies of raw materials at reasonable delivered prices will be crucial to the future vibrancy of Idaho's primary forest products industry. Indications are that Idaho's primary forest products industry is supply limited. Because of this, the future of the industry is dictated by its ability to maintain existing sectors and to attract and create new forest product market segments given a limited supply of raw materials.