The economic impact of prime -age adult mortality on Malawian agricultural households in the era of HIV/AIDS

Prime age adult mortality has been increasing with the advent of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) pandemic. Sickness, funerals and post funeral ceremonies rob households of human and financial capital, which has potential to harm the welfare of agricultural households in the short, medium and long term. This study examines the impact of prime-age adult mortality (PAM) on agricultural production and rural non-farm employment participation among farm households in Malawi.;The first essay uses a difference-in-differences fixed effects regression to analyze a 13-year interval panel data set to examine the effects of PAM in the short (0-3years), medium (4-6 years) and long term (7-13years) on total area cultivated, maize area, and non-maize cultivated area. Results show that cultivated area declined in the short-term by 0.32 hectares (ha) among all households afflicted by PAM, but no medium or long-term effects were significant. Non-maize area declined in the short-term by 0.23 ha while maize area declined in the medium term by 0.33ha among households afflicted by PA death. Reduction in planted area was greatest after a male household head or spouse died. The decline in staple maize area in the medium term has negative implications for household food security. We recommend provision of input credit (for fertilizer and hired labor) for maintaining non-maize crops in the short-term. Afflicted households could mitigate food insecurity with cash proceeds from marketing non-maize crops.;The second essay uses a double hurdle model composed of a first-stage probit model followed by a truncated regression on non-zero observations from 2002 cross-sectional survey data in order to assess PAM impact on participation and intensity of participation in rural non-farm employment. Results show that PAM affects the decisions of surviving adults on participation in rural non-farm employment, depending on the gender and household position of the deceased. A "labor pull" effect occurs when a PA female head or spouse dies, as home care labor demand causes retraction of labor from non-farm to farm household activities. A "financial push" effect occurs when the death of a PA male occurs, as surviving adults enter the non-farm employment market to recover finances lost during illness and funerals. Death of PA women reduced likelihood of participation in agricultural rural non-farm employment (RNFE) and not in the non-agricultural RNFE, suggesting potential gender barriers to entry into high pay-off non-agricultural markets. Surviving adults are more likely to participate in RNFE in the short term (0-6 years) after a PA death and less likely over the long term (7-13 years). For those who participate in the non-farm employment, intensity levels drop in the days following the death shock but increase over time. Injecting credit for labor hire and inputs in the short-term could increase productivity of retracted labor in the short term and help prevent the observed medium term decline in maize area planted. For severely afflicted households, this intervention strategy needs to be complemented with direct food aid, as part of a comprehensive strategy to strengthen local social safety nets.