Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity.; A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program.; From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes how synfuels and other conventional energy sources are rejected in favor of conservation, use of nuclear facilities, and use of alternative fuels.