Presidential decision making: When do United States presidents use preventive force to counter nuclear proliferation | Posted on:2008-07-01 | Degree:Ph.D | Type:Dissertation | University:The George Washington University | Candidate:Furches, Amy King | Full Text:PDF | GTID:1446390005974047 | Subject:Political science | Abstract/Summary: | | In light of the application of the Bush Doctrine in Iraq, this research examines U.S. presidential decisions to use or not to use preventive force as a method of counter proliferation. In order to determine the circumstances in which presidents use preventive force to counter nuclear proliferation to hostile states, this study applies prospect theory---a situational analysis of decision making and risk taking. Unlike rational choice theory, which posits that individuals make utility-maximizing decisions based on cost-benefit calculations, prospect theory holds that the context of the decision---the circumstances in which the individual is operating---determines the choice selection. Prospect theory focuses on decision making under risk, predicting that individuals are risk-averse when they are in a domain of gains---a good position---and risk-acceptant when functioning from a domain of loss---a poor or losing position. Thus, prospect theory predicts that when countering nuclear proliferation, presidents will engage in riskier policies when operating from a domain of losses but will act more cautiously if making decisions from a domain of gains.; Four cases in which presidents considered using preventive force to combat nuclear proliferation to a hostile state are studied in order to test prospect theory's predictions and to determine the conditions under which presidents consider the preventive use of force: Dwight Eisenhower's 1954 consideration of preventive war in response to the Soviet Union's test of a thermonuclear weapon; Lyndon Johnson's consideration of preventive strikes against Communist China's nascent nuclear sites in 1964; William Clinton's consideration of preventive air strikes against North Korea's nuclear reactor at Yongbyon in 1994; and George W. Bush's decision to conduct preventive was in Iraq in 2003 in order to disarm the state by ousting its government.; This study found that Eisenhower, Johnson, and Clinton were each operating from a domain of gains when they rejected preventive force as a method of counter proliferation---though a rational choice explanation cannot be completely ruled out---while Bush's decision to preventively attack Iraq was made from a domain of loss in the wake of the September 11th terrorist attacks. This study concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the Bush Doctrine and U.S. foreign policy decision making going forward. | Keywords/Search Tags: | Decision, Preventive force, Nuclear proliferation, Presidents, Counter | | Related items |
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