The electoral geography of provisional ballots in North Carolina by county: The 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

The geography of provisional ballots is a realm of electoral geography that is increasingly important as a key component of shaping election outcomes, yet has been considerably under-researched. This purpose of this dissertation is to identify the geographic significance and the overall impact of the 52,000 provisional ballots cast during the 2008 Presidential election in North Carolina as well as conduct the first comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution of provisional ballots in North Carolina in both absolute and relative terms during the 2008 Presidential Election. The first phase of the research conducted an inventory of the geography of absolute provisional ballots whereas the second phase of the research used stepwise multiple regression modeling to highlight the links that existed between three dependent variables; provisional ballots cast, ineligible provisional ballots and eligible provisional ballots and a number of independent predictor variables (e.g. race, age, education, etc.).;The research found that counties with older, more educated, white populations with traditional political ideologies cast provisional ballots at a lower rate and have their provisional ballots deemed eligible at a lower rate than other counties. Finally, counties with larger minority populations, specifically Native Americans, and younger populations appear to cast provisional ballots and have those ballots counted at a higher rate than other counties less diverse older populations.