A multivariate analysis of United States Coast Guard enlistment propensity

There has been over thirty years of research on the military manpower policy implications of voluntary service in the U.S. military. This research, overall, has not included the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) which is America's smallest military service and the largest agency in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The USCG maintains a military personnel system and for managerial reason assumes that it experiences similar enlisted personnel trends as the Department of Defense (DOD). It acknowledges, however, that this assumption requires empirical testing.; DOD research has shown that there is a relationship between a person's enlistment propensity and their actual enlistment decision. This dissertation examines the differences between the factors that influenced the U.S. Coast Guard's (USCG) and Department of Defense's (DOD) enlistment propensities during the 1990's. The statistical models indicate that high military propensity youth did not perceive the USCG to be a military service. The models also suggest that high propensity youth with a predisposition for civilian work were more likely to prefer the Coast Guard enlistment while those with a predisposition for military service were more likely to prefer DOD enlistment. Finally, the models indicate that race, region, aptitude, and family background have an influence on an individual's military service preference. The findings of this dissertation, however, are preliminary as it does not relate a person's enlistment propensity to their actual enlistment decision.