| This research examines the predictive utility of the Wisconsin Risk Needs Assessment instrument as used with Texas probationers. Since its adoption by the National Institute of Corrections in 1982, the Wisconsin instrument has been widely accepted as a tool for risk prediction and needs assessment. It has been used for its ability to properly classify offenders into risk of probation failure. This analysis will discuss the commonly accepted predictors of recidivism, prior probation recidivism research, the history of risk assessment, needs assessment and the current state of the Wisconsin Risk Needs Assessment. The research will consist of point-biserial correlations, classification analysis, and logistic regression models to determine the predictive ability of the total and itemized risk and needs scores of the Wisconsin assessment tool. The criterion variable will be any new arrest for a Class B misdemeanor or greater. Determining which variables correlate with offender recidivism allows agencies the opportunity to focus on high-risk offenders. The repercussions associated with a lack of intensive treatment and supervision for high-risk offenders can cause unintended problems. On the contrary, over-supervising offenders of low-risk lead to mismanagement of valuable resources that would best be served on high-risk offenders. Keywords. Predictor variables, recidivism, risk assessment, needs assessment, Wisconsin Risk Needs Assessment, probation. |
