Study On Risk Evaluation And Risk-sharing Of Utility Tunnel Based On PPP Mode

At present,"Road zipper" ? "Look at the sea in the city" have become increasingly prominent in China,utility tunnel can effectively solve above problems,which has been recognized and promoted in foreign and domestic.But it developes slowly in China.Be compared to developed countries,it has a big difference.Because the utility tunnel is a capital-intensive and technology-intensive infrastructure project.Just rely on the government can not go on.The emergence of PPP(public-private partnership)model provides a new opportunity for the development of utility tunnel in China.Correct assessment and reasonable risk-sharing are the key to the successful use of PPP model.Howerer,there is no laws and regulations specially applicable to the PPP project.In addition,risk research on utility tunnel PPP projects is very little and not systematic.The purpose of this study is to design a complete set of risk-sharing process.This paper will examine the research perspective under the project company(SPV),which is co-founded by both public and private sector.Its purpose is to build a "risk-sharing theoretical ?risk identification?initial risk sharing?determine the proportion of risk shared?empirical analysis" as the main study line,to explore the risks faced by public and private sectors and their risk behaviors.In order to achieve public and private risk-sharing,benefit sharing "win-win" cooperation purposes.This study has both theoretical and practical value.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Identify and evaluate risks.Bulid a risk list of utility tunnel PPP projects by interviews,field visits and literature research methods.Based on the questionnaire results,then 17 key risk factors are obtained by SPSS19.0 factor analysis(FA method),and as a risk-sharing system;(2)Establish a reasonable risk-sharing mechanism.Risk-sharing mechanism is a system of checks and balances the rights,responsibilities and interests of both public and private.Combined with the actual situation of China's utility tunnel,the risk-sharing principle and the risk-sharing point of time linked to the formation of three stages of risk-sharing: initial sharing,negotiation sharing,tracking re-sharing.And designs the risk-sharing framework,and then designs the risk-sharing mechanism from the aspects of behavior-oriented system and behavioralization system.(3)Design risk-sharing scheme.(1)Initial sharing stage.Based on the principle of risk control ability and risk-taking principle,the risk-sharing system is adopted as the key riskfactor,based on improved entropy-TOPSIS model to determine the burden of ownership and share risk factors.(2)Negotiation sharing stage.Based on the principle of risk sharing and profit matching and take the willingness and preference of both parties into account,the Shapley value of the public and private parties is calculated based on the stochastic cooperative game theory,which can solve the optimal risk-sharing ratio to minimize risk and maximize the benefits.(3)Tracking the re-sharing stage.The risk of dynamic sharing as the principle of dynamic tracking of risk,real-time monitoring,the emergence of new risks and the occurrence of "mutation" risk of timely redistribution.(4)Liupanshui utility tunnel as empirical study.Research shows that the macro layer risks mainly are shared by the public sector alone,the medium layer risks mainly are shared by the private sector alone,the micro layer risks are shared by public and private sectors.Through the random cooperation game to optimize the proportion of risk-sharing,public and private parties and the overall risk premium are reduced,earnings expectations are increased.