Research On Risk Early Warning Of PPP Model In Utility Tunnel

At present,our country is vigorously promoting the construction of the utility tunnel,and the serious shortage of government funds,the resource allocation advantages of PPP model and the support of national policy,making the combination of PPP model and the utility tunnel into a hot spot.However,due to the new and special nature of the PPP projects of utility tunnel,the risk factors of it are various and complex,while the experience of risk management is seriously inadequate.There is therefore a need to develop an equitable risk early warning system in China so as to increase the chances of success in PPP projects of utility tunnel.In order to establish a complete set of early warning system of PPP utility tunnel project,the paper first clarifies the three major functional modules of the risk management system,including risk identification,risk early warning and risk coping.At the same time,it chooses the whole life cycle perspective to carry on the risk identification research,and divides the full life cycle of PPP utility tunnel project into decision-making stage,financing stage,design stage,construction stage,franchise operations stage and non-franchise operations stage.Then,through literature review,case studies,brainstorming and expert interviews,the paper identify the main risk factors from the full life cycle perspective.Secondly,based on the established principles of early warning indicator system,the paper process the research results of the risk identification module and build a set of risk early warning indicator system from the perspective of life cycle,which comprised of 7 first-level indicators and 33 secondary indicators.On this basis,the paper constructs an evaluation model with the fuzzy set method,transference entropy and the matter-element method,and carries on the response analysis to its early warning evaluation result.Finally,the paper takes the PPP project of KF utility tunnel as an example,through empirical research,the risk grade of the project is determined and the risk response suggestion is put forward.