| The politics of fresh water in international contexts are becoming increasingly contentious. This study analyzes the effects of development, demographics and ecological factors on international disputes over water. From a human ecology approach, I develop a model of water conflict that examines the extent to which population growth and density, urbanization, water scarcity and degradation, social organization, inequitable distribution of water, social inequality, and trade affect the likelihood of conflict over water. Using water event data from the Basins at Risk section of the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database (Wolf 1998; Yoffe 2002) and ordinary least squares regression modeling, I tested hypotheses that specified predictors of international water conflict and cooperation. Field notes from a case study of the international dispute between Slovakia and Hungary were also analyzed.; The results of the analysis indicate that, of demographic predictors, population density has the clearest and most consistent association with international water conflict and cooperation. Countries with higher population densities have more frequent international water interactions of a more conflictual nature. Population growth and urbanization are also found to be associated with water conflict in various predicted ways. Indicators of development tend to be associated with reduced levels of international water conflict, however, in the case of international inequality of development, water conflict is more likely. Among environmental factors, several indicators of water degradation and depletion were associated with an increase in the level of international water conflict, however these findings were somewhat inconsistent. Inequality in terms of the amount of internally available water was consistently associated with higher levels of conflict. A surprising and counterintuitive fording is that countries that sign international water treaties continue to have water events of a conflictive nature after the treaty is signed. In the case study of Hungary and Slovakia, environmental degradation and depletion was found to increase environmental activism, which had the effect of destabilizing the national government of Hungary. After regime changes in both Hungary and Slovakia, international conflict increased due to the new political openness associated with democracy. Institutional mechanisms have since been established to reduce the intensity of the earlier dispute. |
