| North Korea's economy is on a steady decline. It is clear that as long as North Korea maintains its current economic system, its continued decline is likely. Not surprisingly, North Korea has been trying to adopt a Chinese-style reform. However, it is failing to attain the desired goal. There is, in fact, no historical precedence that an independent communist country peacefully democratize its political system; more importantly, there is no reason to expect that North Korea can do so. In other words, North Korea cannot survive under the status quo, nor can it emulate China; in addition, North Korea's current leaders cannot democratize their political system without fear of their own well-being. Thus, it appears that the survival of the current regime and a reform are incompatible. If this is the case, what is the probable future for North Korea?;A war is thinkable. A desperate North Korea may export nuclear weapons to so called rogue nations. Neither case, however, would bode well for North Korea's neighbors and for the rest of the world. Therefore, this study suggests more preferable alternative futures and the policies needed to make them possible. One is to offer North Korea's current leaders asylum. It is unreasonable to expect that the current leaders will adopt serious reform if such reform is likely to lead to their own suffering. Thus, if North Korea were to implement reforms that would prevent economic collapse, it is necessary for the South Korean and other governments to guarantee the safety and comfort of the current leaders of North Korea. |
