Mass migration, nonviolent social action, and the Cuban raft exodus, 1959-1994: An analysis of citizen motivation and international politics

The study collects and analyzes data on over 63,000 citizens, known as balseros (rafters), who made illegal exits from Cuba by sea between 1959 and 1994. It describes the phenomenon of rafting and explores the rafters' demography and self-reported motivations, as well as their interaction with the Cuban state and with interstate migration policies. These data are analyzed using theories of migration, social movement and strategic nonviolent conflict.; The rafters divided into two temporal cycles that demonstrated a repetitive pattern of interaction with the state. The cycles began with dangerous, individual, citizen-initiated exit. When the number of exits became high enough to create societal awareness of the phenomenon, the Cuban state intervened, simultaneously demonizing those who were leaving as anti-social elements, and inviting the increase of their numbers by temporarily withdrawing legal sanctions against departure by sea. The resulting surge of rafters created an international migratory crisis for the United States and produced negotiations between the U.S. and Cuba. Once negotiations were concluded, the Cuban and U.S. governments jointly increased enforcement measures to end the exit of balseros.; The rafters denied any intent to struggle with the Cuban state in an ongoing way. Rather, they indicated an intent to defy the state in order to free themselves of it permanently. Their decisions to leave were taken in consultation with small, domestic networks of trusted friends and family who served organizational and planning functions. Four reasons for leaving were repeatedly reported, including: the necessity of wearing "a mask" of political compliance in Cuba; the inability to know who was who in Cuban society due to pervasive state security; the necessity of trading in the black market and the risks attendant upon it: and the fear that violent revenge may accompany increased social deterioration.; Variation in the effectiveness of the Cuban government's strategy for manipulating the rafter phenomenon is considered in light of the changing political/social/economic circumstances of the Cuban people, the Cuban state, and U.S. foreign and migration policy. Implications for regime change in Cuba are offered.