| This dissertation estimated the impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities in Korea using vector autoregressive model.; The first objective of this dissertation is to analyze whether there is any causal relationship between change in the currency value and changes in the import quantities of forest products in Korea. Assuming that there is any causal relationship, the second objective is to evaluate the dynamics of the impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities in Korea.; The relationship between the currency value and the import quantity was represented by bivariate vector autoregressive model. The currency value was expressed as the Korean exchange rate per U.S. dollar.; Whether there is any causal relationship between change in the currency value and changes in the import quantities of forest products was analyzed by the causality test of Granger. And the dynamics of the impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities were evaluated by variance decomposition analysis and impulse response analysis.; The import quantity of forest products can be explained by the lagged exchange rate per U.S. dollar variables and the lagged import quantity variables in Korea. Change in the currency value causes change in the softwood roundwood import quantity in Korea. In the bivariate model of the softwood roundwood import quantity, after six months, the currency value change accounts for about ten percent of variation in the import quantity, and its own change accounts for about ninety percent of variation in the import quantity. On the other hand, the impact of a shock to the currency value is significant for about six months on the import quantity of softwood roundwood in Korea. That is, if the currency value change indeed had an impact on the import quantity of softwood roundwood in Korea, it was only of a short-term nature. |
