The Empirical Study Of The Influence Of Import Commodity Structure On The Industrial Structure Upgrading In China

To speed up the industrial structure upgrading is the key to a period of steady economic growth to our country in the future, which is not only the guidance of external environment, but also the needs of the development of their own. With the development of economic globalization, the international trade has become significant exogenous power the industrial structure evolution of a country and area. Otherwise,the import trade commodity structure is comprehensive reflection of a country or region industrial structure. Therefore, systematic, comprehensive and in-depth analysis of import trade commodity structure can be used as a judge of the trend of the development of Chinese industrial structure, and the important basis to promote industrial structure development strategy.The theory part of the article, based on the path of import commodity structure affect on the industrial structure upgrade, then from the perspective of the classification of BEC, divide the import goods into capital goods, intermediate and consumer goods, and analyzes the different effector mechanism of the different imports acting on the industrial structure respectively.The empirical part of the article, using entropy method to build the evaluation system of industrial structure upgrade, study the influence of the imported capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods on the industrial structure upgrading from 1992 to 2012 base on the VAR model. Results show that import trade has played an important role to our country industrial structure upgrade. In detail, compared with capital goods, the contribution of intermediate goods to industrial structure upgrading is more obvious, and consumer products would hinder the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure to some extent. And there is no bidirectional causality between the industrial structure upgrading and the import commodity structure, and the virtuous cycle between the import commodity structure improvement and industrial structure upgrading has not established. Based on the above empirical test,investigate the effects of subdivision of intermediate goods and capital goods on industrial structure upgrade.Finally, on the basis of the analyze, this paper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations:Optimize the structure of imported goods,and promote the optimal allocation of resources; Improve the technology absorbing ability of domesticindustrial enterprises; The government play a role to create a good policy environments to promote industrial structure upgrade.