Advertising media models for Internet reach/frequency estimation

This study examined the potential usefulness and viability of the twin concepts of reach and frequency in traditional media planning as applied to the new Internet media environment. The main research question concerned whether or not advertising reach/frequency estimation media models developed for other traditional media types should perform as well for this emerging advertising medium.;To this end, three different sets of World Wide Web audience data were collected to provide input to existing six reach/frequency estimation models and to provide a benchmark for accuracy testing of these models via tabulated schedules of Web vehicles. This approach served as the basis for this examination of Web reach and frequency planning. Overall, for the six models studied (binomial distribution, beta binomial distribution, sequential aggregation distribution, conditional beta distribution, Dirichlet multinomial distribution, and Hofmans beta binomial distribution), all models perform at differing levels of accuracy from high to low.;While the errors of models in the pilot study were relatively large compared with those reported in previous studies of other media types, the results of testing reach/frequency estimation models with the recent "reading" data and the Media Metrix data showed that these models performed as well on Web data. For the six models studied all except the binomial distribution estimated reach/frequency quite accurately within acceptable limits of error. One thing to be noted is that one of the oldest and simplest models, the beta binomial distribution provided the greatest accuracy of estimation in terms of average percentage error and average percentage error in exposure distribution combined.;This finding illustrates the simplicity of audience exposure patterns to the Web sites included in this study. Even at this early and unsettled stage in the development of audience exposure patterns for the Web, methods of reach/frequency estimation can provide accurate estimates of the audiences of media schedules containing Web media vehicles. It is also suggested that reach/frequency estimation will become the next main issue in Internet advertising once the conceptual/technical issues involved in Internet audience measurement are resolved.