FORECAST OF COMPUTER INNOVATIONS RELEVANT TO COMPUTER LITERACY EDUCATION AT THE SECONDARY SCHOOL LEVEL IN TAIWAN, R.O.C., 1981-200

The purpose of this study was to forecast computer innovations in order to provide information to decision makers for planning and implementing a better computer literacy education at the secondary school level in Taiwan. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine the time periods of possible events of Chinese language computer development and their educational impacts during the period 1981-2000, and (2) to determine the time periods of possible events of computer application in education, especially computer literacy education in secondary schools, during the period 1981-2000 in Taiwan.;A Delphi method was used to achieve the objectives. Data were collected with three rounds of related Delphi instruments which were delivered to a Delphi panel which consisted of 25 selected computer experts from Taiwan.;Based on the results of the Delphi study and analysis of the data, the following conclusions were drawn: (1) the standardization of Chinese interchange codes and character sets will be the basis for further development and application of computers that function in the Chinese language; (2) low cost Chinese computer typewriter and word processing software will have the most impact on education; (3) computer-aided instruction in junior high school will have the most effect on computer literacy; (4) computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing are the most important computer applications for industry in Taiwan; (5) by the early 1990's, an "information society" will become a reality with one-third of the families having a computer or terminal, plus the establishment of regional computer centers and national information service systems, and the automation of office and industry.;The major recommendations are as follows: (1) computer literacy education should be extended to every junior high school to secure equal access as early as possible; (2) a teacher education model and curriculum for junior high school computer literacy should be developed; (3) industrial education should play a more important role in providing career awareness, orientation, and preparation related to computer careers for students; (4) the computer business and industry should take some responsibility and invest in computer education; (5) this study could be used as a model for replication in other countries that are similar in terms of language or culture.