Supply and demand rectangular input-output demographic accounts for a small area housing sector school population model

The improbability of making accurate public school pupil enrollment projections due to a lack of models designed to incorporate population fluctuations resulting from pupil migration and residential mobility was the problem addressed in this study. The purpose of the study was to test the validity of using rectangular input-output accounting structures to represent population fluctuations resulting from pupil migration, residential mobility, and persistence through various housing sectors. Six years of Jordan School District student demographic data involving yearly student sample populations of approximately 1,400 kindergarten through grade twelve students were studied.; Descriptive and analytical methods confirmed the stability of supply and demand input-output coefficients. Distributions of student populations by grade level were presented for defined housing sectors confirming homogeneity of population subgroups. Data suggest that rectangular input-output accounting structures could be effectively used to improve the accuracy of school population projections.