A GOAL PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO ALTERNATIVE DECISION MAKING RATIONALES FOR MULTI-OBJECTIVE PUBLIC FOREST LAND MANAGEMENT

Various mathematical techniques have been developed to help the decision maker cope with complex resource allocation problems. Most of these techniques are variations of the basic linear programming model and are applicable to situations where input-output relationships can be quantified and objectives and constraints identified.A model to allocate alternative land uses consistent with multiple use criteria has been developed and applied to a 13,000 acre area formed of separate parcels of the Cedar Creek Ranger District, Mark Twain National Forest in Central Missouri. Utilization of such a multiple objective approach provides for a more effective resolution of the task of consolidating the wide variety of public land management objectives into a representative goal.The model examines the feasibility of various combinations of land management options in satisfying the decision maker's present and future goals given their priority ordering and the weighting of such goals. This procedure facilitates the measurement of trade-off values within the management objective matrix.Two different ways have been followed in the analysis which relates to the present objective achievement of the Cedar Creek District. Priority alternatives include output, input and resource overproduction, alternate priority level, and budget change. Seven priority alternatives and three levels of budgetary changes are employed to show the trade-off among the different resource options.Goal programming is an extension of linear programming, but different from it in its ability to accommodate a multiple of objectives. This technique transforms the multiple of product objectives to the problem of minimizing the weighted deviations from each goal, subject to applicable constraints. Thus, within given physical, financial and biological constraints it will be possible to determine which management alternative is feasible, its respective input requirements and product mixes.Future goal and land requirements are analyzed in order to provide for projected long term resource needs. Two alternative strategies which analyze a 20,000-acre and 30,000-acre land area using four priority alternatives and three levels of budgetary changes are used to examine the future goal achievement and the trade-offs. Also, two alternatives which explain the acreage and budget requirements for complete achievement of the present goal and the future goal are discussed.