| Low carbon and green development is one of the hot topics that economic society continues to pay attention to under the requirements of sustainable development.Applying the concept of low carbon economic development to the transformation and development of related industries,especially the traditional industries with high energy consumption and high pollution,and seeking the harmonious balance between industrial development and ecological environment improvement has become an important topic for many scholars.Nowadays,as one of the traditional industries with high energy consumption and high pollution,coal industry has been under the double pressure of industry sustainable development and national ecological environment protection requirements,and it is urgent to seek the transformation development path,and the emergence of low-carbon economic concept points out the direction of low-carbon transformation development.Therefore,this paper selects China's coal industry as the research object,focusing on the analysis of how to achieve the goal of carbon emission constraint through the coal industry scale and industry energy intensity control,so as to realize the industry's low-carbon transformation and development.The control strategy and process of coal industry scale and energy intensity can provide useful help for the realization of carbon emission intensity control goal.By summarizing and commenting on the existing research,the research idea of this paper is established as follows:firstly,by analyzing the influencing factors of carbon emission of coal industry,it is determined that the two most important factors affecting carbon emission of coal industry are industry scale and industry energy intensity,and then it is clear that carbon emission control of coal industry should be studied from these two aspects.On this basis,a variety of research methods are used to analyze the control factors of coal industry scale and industry energy intensity;then,according to the analysis of the impact of relevant control factors on industry scale and industry energy intensity,the simulation analysis model is constructed,and the simulation results are compared with the carbon emission constraints to determine whether the simulation results meet the constraints?If the conditions are satisfied,it is proved that the simulation process of industry scale and industry energy intensity under the joint action of various control factors is effective,and based on this,the regulation process of industry scale and industry energy intensity which can achieve the industry carbon emission constraint goal is proposed.This paper mainly studies the following issues:Firstly,based on the decoupling principle,the coupling relationship between the development of coal industry and carbon emission is analyzed.Through the construction of decoupling index between the development level of coal industry and carbon emission of coal industry,it is found that the change relationship between the two is not ideal in the near future,indicating that the industry carbon emission control is facing greater pressure.Secondly,based on Kaya equation and LMDI decomposition method,this paper analyzes the factors that affect the carbon emission of coal industry,and finds that the scale of coal industry is the main factor to promote the carbon emission of the industry,and the energy intensity of the industry is the main factor to restrain the carbon emission.It is established that the scale control and the energy intensity control of the industry are the main control methods of the carbon emission of the coal industry.Thirdly,using the empirical analysis method,through the construction of the coal industry scale control factor impact analysis model,from the perspective of overall control,regional difference control and time difference control to analyze the impact of relevant control factors on the industry scale in different situations.It is found that,from the perspective of overall control,the industry scale should achieve the control goal mainly through the effective control of its own factors such as coal industry output,industry cost,industry fixed asset investment,industry export and industry R&D investment.In the control of regional differences,the control objectives should be achieved by controlling the industry cost,industry fixed assets investment and industry R&D investment in class A areas with better resource endowment;the control objectives should be achieved by controlling the industry output,industry cost and industry R&D investment in class B areas with moderate resource endowment;the control objectives should be achieved by controlling the industry output,industry cost and industry R&D investment in class C areas with general resource endowment Mainly control the industrial output in the region to achieve the control objectives.From the perspective of time difference,in the period of continuous growth of industry scale,control objectives should be achieved by controlling industry output,industry cost,industry fixed asset investment,industry export and industry R&D investment;in the period of continuous decline,control objectives should be achieved mainly by controlling industry output,industry cost and industry R&D investment.According to the above different circumstances,the paper puts forward the corresponding industry scale control strategy.Fourth,through the analysis,it is found that the total factor productivity and energy price have an important impact on the energy intensity of the industry.The TFP index of coal industry is calculated by using the DEA-Malmquist index analysis method.On this basis,the industry energy intensity control factor impact analysis model considering the direct impact and interactive impact is constructed.It is found that in the long-term control,the energy price,the level of technological progress,the level of pure technical efficiency and the level of industrial scale efficiency should be controlled to achieve the control objectives,while in the short-term control,the energy price and the level of pure technical efficiency should be controlled to achieve the control objectives.Considering the interaction,we should not only control the level of energy price,technological progress,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency,but also pay attention to the regulation of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency on energy price to strengthen the inhibition of energy price on energy intensity of the industry.According to the above analysis conclusions,the corresponding industry energy intensity control strategy is proposed.Fifthly,according to the conclusion of the analysis of the influence of the above control factors on the industry scale and energy intensity,combined with the prediction model of each control factor and the analysis model of the industry carbon emission intensity,the simulation analysis model based on the perspective of overall control,regional difference and time difference is constructed by using the Simulink simulation platform.Through the simulation analysis,it is found that the simulation value of industry carbon emission intensity output by the model analysis meets the carbon emission constraint target value at different time points in the future.Therefore,the industry scale and industry energy intensity control process under different perspectives can be proposed according to the changes of industry scale and industry energy intensity simulated by the model.Finally,on the basis of summarizing the main conclusions of this paper,this paper points out the research content that can be further expanded in the future,in order to provide useful help for the follow-up research of carbon emission control in the coal industry. |
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