A Study On The Impact Of China's Carbon Emission Price On Export Competitiveness Of The Covered Industries

To actively address climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions,China's national carbon market was launched on 19 th Dec 2017.While the first phase of the market only covers the power generation sector,other seven energy-intensive,high-polluting,high-emission industries will be covered in the next few years,which include paper,oil,chemical,non-metallic,black metal,non-ferrous metal and aviation industries(covered industries).The restrictive carbon market,on the one hand,could reduce greenhouse gas and polluting gas emissions,reduce energy consumption,promote supply-side reform,and promote green development.On the other hand,it could increase the emitting cost of those covered industries,decrease their profits,and influence the competitiveness in the global trading.It has become an emerging issue to balance the carbon price and export competitiveness,as well as,to promote the transformation and upgrading of industries at the least cost.Having a precise and thorough understanding of the mechanism of carbon price's impacts on the export competitiveness of the covered industries,therefore,has important application value and practical significance for the institutional design of the national carbon market and the formulation of foreign trade policies.This dissertation selected the six export-intensive covered industries(including paper,oil,chemical,non-metallic,black metal,non-ferrous metal industries).Firstly,based on the literature reviews and analysis of status quo,this dissertation illustrates the mechanism of the complex impacts of energy prices and carbon prices on export competitiveness.It presents a theoretical analysis of the carbon price influences on energy prices,energy price influences on the export competitiveness and thus the carbon price influences on the export competitiveness through energy price fluctuations.Secondly,a set of penal-data models including static and dynamic models is constructed to reflect the complex situation of carbon market and international export.The models present the marginal effect,cumulative effects and threshold effects of the carbon price on the international export competitiveness.Finally,the dissertation provides policy suggestions about the national carbon market construction considering the findings.The dissertation mainly reveals the following findings:Firstly,with regression analysis,this dissertation analyzed the impact of energy price fluctuations on export competitiveness.The static and dynamic models based on panel data of the six industries covered by pilot carbon markets between 1998-2015 show that the export competitiveness index is significantly negatively correlated with the energy price.The energy price increases by 1% and the export index decrease0.0002.In 2015,while the energy price increases 1 RMB/SCE,the export volumes of paper,chemical,oil,non-metallic,black metal,non-ferrous metal industries accordingly decline 2.87,16.8,6.92,12.11,12.36 and 9.38 million USD.Secondly,this dissertation analyses the marginal effects and cumulative effects of the fluctuating carbon price on export competitiveness regarding the interactions between carbon price and energy price.It is revealed that the carbon price increase 1RMB/t CO2 e,the industry energy price in all six domains will accordingly increase3.62,3.32,2.38,3.37,3.43 and 4.55 RMB.The static regression model elaborates that the export competitiveness index declined by 0.15% with the energy price increases by 1%,which lays the foundation for further calculation of the marginal effects and cumulative effects on the exports.In addition,the sensitive carbon price of all six industries in ascending order is: 66 RMB in oil,135 RMB in black metal,301 RMB in non-metal,306 RMB in non-ferrous metal,309 RMB in chemicals and 446 RMB in paper industry.Thirdly,the research and development(R?D)expense and the degree of opening have significantly threshold effects on sector export competitiveness,whose values are 3.247 million RMB and 13.59%.When either of two is lower than the threshold value,the coefficient of energy price is-0.0003.While the R?D expense exceeds3.247 million RMB,energy price will show no significant effect on export competitiveness.While the degree of opening exceeds 13.59%,the coefficient of energy price will go down to-0.0006.This dissertation further elaborates the export competitiveness and volume of all six industries at selected various carbon price levels considering the marginal effects and cumulative effects.Finally,based on the empirical results,this dissertation put forward a series of suggestions.It is raised that the national carbon market construction and management should attach importance to the carbon price,assist to form a reasonable carbon price interval,and draft certificate allocation plans regarding industry features.Besides,this dissertation put forward focused issues and suited abatement measures for the six covered industries.Lastly,this dissertation also put forward policy suggestions on energy prices,trade openness,the exchange rate mechanism and R?D expenses.