Resea Rch On The Scenarios And Effectiveness Of Post Carbon Peaking In China's Power Industry Under The Constraintr Of 1.5?

According to the special report "Global Warming of 1.5?" issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change(IPCC),human beings must control the global temperature rise within 1.5? before the middle of this century,so as to minimize the impact of various extreme weather and natural disasters on human beings.Therefore,countries around the world urgently need to adopt rapid and far-reaching low-carbon transformation and transformation strategies in various industries and fields.China's electric power industry not only accounts for the highest proportion of China's total carbon emissions,but also accounts for a much higher proportion of global carbon emissions than other industries in other countries.In view of this,taking the peak of carbon emissions as a watershed,studying the post peak trend scenario of carbon emissions in China's power industry can not only provide decision support for the medium and long-term emission reduction path of China's power industry from the peak to the net zero emission,but also provide reference for the formulation of carbon emission reduction schemes in the power industry in other countries around the world.The main contents and conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)This paper analyzes the assessment results of the power industry involved in the IPCC 1.5? special report,decomposes the assessment information related to the energy structure adjustment and carbon emission reduction of the power industry in the report to the power industry in China,and calculates and processes the carbon emission and other relevant indicators of the power industry in China according to the official authoritative data.In order to comprehensively describe the comprehensive development level of China's power industry at this stage,the development track of its basic economic indicators,investment and construction indicators,technical efficiency indicators and energy consumption indicators is analyzed dynamically.(2)Through international comparative analysis,combined with the trend characteristics of the change track of carbon emissions after the peak countries have been achieved,the trend types of other countries after peak are summarized,and according to the characteristics of China's carbon emissions,the scenarios that conform to the trend of China's power industry after peak are analyzed.(3)This paper constructs a Markov chain based forecasting model of China's power structure,forecasts the power structure of China's power industry up to 2050,and sets the trend technology emission reduction scenario after the peak of power industry based on the model results;and sets the trend economy emission reduction scenario after the peak of power industry based on the carbon pricing mechanism.In order to fully reveal the comprehensive impact of the post peak trend scenario of China's power industry on the world's major countries,a global multi sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is constructed with the coal power technology progress as the exogenous impact and the carbon pricing mechanism as the exogenous impact.(4)The results show that although the technological progress of power structure is more significant than that of carbon pricing mechanism in China's power industry,it will also inhibit the economic growth rate of developing countries analyzed in this study.On the contrary,although the implementation of carbon pricing mechanism in China's whole industry has a relatively gentle impact on countries around the world,the emission reduction effect achieved by this post peak trend scenario also fully meets the constraints of the global temperature rise target.Therefore,this study believes that even though the extreme way of coal power decline can achieve the temperature control goal with the fastest speed and the most significant emission reduction effect,it is not conducive to the realization of the global sustainable development goal,while the carbon pricing mechanism can not achieve the immediate effect in the short term,but in the medium and long term,it is more in line with the internal coordinated and unified development of global economy,energy and environment requirement.