| Addressing global climate change is a common challenge faced by all human beings.China,currently the largest carbon dioxide emitter and energy consumer in the world,is facing both international and domestic pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction.The Chinese government has always attached great importance to climate change in a responsible manner,insisted on resource conservation and environmental protection as its basic national policy,and made sustainable development its national strategy.In 2016,the Chinese government promulgated Outline of the 13 th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development,which clearly puts forward the concept of innovation,coordination,green,openness and sharing,with green development an important direction and focus of China's development in the 13 th Five-Year Plan and even longer term.This fully reflects the Chinese government's great importance and determination on the green and low-carbon development.Cities are the agglomeration areas of energy resources consumption and carbon emissions.In the context of breaking the constraints of resources and environment and coping with global climate change,promoting low-carbon development in cities has become a common challenge faced by all countries.As the country with the fastest urbanization in the world,China is facing a particularly severe situation.At present,the carbon dioxide emissions of 287 cities at prefecture level and abovein China account for about 72% of the national emissions,and carbon dioxide emissions from the top 100 cities account for about 51% of the national emissions.How to improve the quality and efficiency of urbanization development and embark on a new path of intensive,intelligent,green and low-carbon urbanization is an important issue facing China and has great practical significance.At present,an increasing number of scholars have paid attention to the study of carbon emissions,and a large number of studies have been carried out,but most of them are carried out at the national or regional level,with few studies atthe urban level,and there is no systematic methodology for the study of urban carbon peaks.The elastic coefficient method is normally adopted in the peak research at the existing city level,and the detailed peak path cannot be given.Therefore,author of this paper focuses on the construction of urban peak research methodology,and takes city as an example to do methodology validation,which has certain theoretical value and practical application value.The main research contents of this paper include two aspects: one is to explore a model methodology applicable tothe study of carbon emission peaks atthe urban level;the other is to use model methodology to study the industrial peak path under the background of urban carbon emission peaks in Wuhan.Five questions were answered: First,the stage of economic and social development in Wuhan;second,the main driving force and contribution of historical carbon emissions in Wuhan;third,the peak of carbon dioxide emissions(peak year,emission(peak target),energy consumption structure and industrial emissionpeaks);fourth,emissions and emission reductions of industrial sectors and sub-sectors under the peak CO2 emission target of Wuhan;Fifth,contribution rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction potential under different development scenarios and the path of industrial emission reduction.The major innovations of this study include three aspects:Firstly,this study systematically builds a peak carbon emission research model CCPAWH at the urban level,which subdivides secondary production into sub-industries at the urban level,and improves the depth and accuracy of peak carbon emission research at different structural levels.This model enriches and improves the peak carbon emission model system of cities in China,and has certain theoretical value.At the same time,this study constructed a complete research system for the first time from the urban development stage,the driving force analysis of carbon emissions,the peak research of urban carbon emissions,and the industrial carbon emissions research under the background of urban carbon emissions peak,which strengthened the logicality and systematicness of the research methods.Secondly,on the basis of comprehensive consideration of the mainstream factors in judging the stage of industrialization development at home and abroad,this study puts forward a comprehensive evaluation method based on four indicators: per capita GDP,industrial structure,the proportion of employees in the primary industry,and the urbanization rate of the permanent population,to analyze and evaluate the stage of industrialization development in Wuhan.Thirdly,based on the CCPA-WH model,this paper conducts the research on the industrial peak path under the scenario of urban carbon emission peak in Wuhan.At the urban level,it systematically answers the questions of when the urban carbon dioxide emission peak,the peak target of the industrial sector under the background of urban peak,the peak time of the industrial sector,the path of the industrial sector peak,and the contribution rate of carbon reduction of each path measure.The corresponding policy suggestions are given for the carbon reduction path,which can provide technical support for the relevant departments of Wuhan in compiling the energy development plan from the 14 th Five-Year Plan to the 16 th Five-Year Plan and energy saving and low-carbon plan.The research results are of high application value.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Judging from the per capita GDP,industrial structure,the proportion of employees in the primary industry and the urbanization rate,Wuhan has initiallyentered the final stage of industrialization.According to the current four-stage division in China,Wuhan has initiallyentered the post-industrialization stage.In the future,the industrial development of Wuhan will shift from labor-intensive to technology-intensive industries.Improving the added value of industrial products is the key direction of industrial development in Wuhan in the future.The economic driving force will shift from capital investment to technology investment and strengthening innovation capability is the focus of future development.(2)Among the historical carbon emissions from 2010 to 2017,the expansion of economic scale,the increase in fossil energy consumption and the expansion of population scale contributed 37%,55.6% and 7.4% respectively;drop in energy intensity and the optimization of industrial structure contributed 82.5% and 17.5% respectively to the reduction of carbon emissions.In the future,promoting higher quality economic development and improving energy efficiency are the key to reduce carbon emissionintensity.(3)Under the three development scenarios of benchmark setting,low carbon and peak,the total energy consumption in Wuhan cannot reach its peak.Carbon dioxide emissions under the benchmark scenario cannot reach the peak.Under the low-carbon scenario and the peak scenario,the carbon dioxide emissions in Wuhan will reach the peak in 2030 and 2025,with the peak values of 131.48 million tons and 121.54 million tons respectively.(4)Under the low-carbon scenario and the peak scenario,the prerequisite for the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in Wuhan in 2030 and 2025 is that the industrial sector reaches the peak five years ahead of schedule.Under the low-carbon scenario,the industrial sector should reach its peak in 2025,and the carbon dioxide emissionpeak of the industrial sector is about 70.6 million tons.Under the peak scenario,the industrial sector should reach its peak in 2020,with a peak of about 69.8 million tons.(5)Carbon reduction potential formed between different development scenarios is huge,and it is increasing year by year.Compared with the benchmark scenario,underthe low-carbon scenario,the carbon reduction potential of the industrial sector in 2020,2025,2030 and 2035 is 3.62 million tons,7.14 million tons,10.9 million tons and 11.18 million tons respectively;under the peak scenario,the carbon reduction potential in 2020,2025,2030 and 2035 is 4.27 million tons,13.65 million tons,20.03 million tons and 21.85 million tons respectively.(6)From the perspective of potential realization,before 2025,the promotion of energy efficiency and the strengthening of management to promote the decline of energy intensity arethe top priority of energy-saving and low-carbon work in the industrial sector.After 2025,the industrial scale effect formed by industrial restructuring will become the biggest potential source.The contribution rate of industrial restructuring to carbon reduction has declined since 2025.In terms of energy structure optimization,the focus is on the optimization of fossil energy structure before 2025 and application of non-fossil energy after 2025.The results of this study can be used as a technical support for Wuhan to formulate a medium and long-term low-carbon urban development plan. |
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