Aggregated System Attributes And Management State Of Non-coal Mine Timely Risk Assessment Model

The components of the non-coal mine safety system are complex,including machine,material,method,environment,media and so on,and the information of these elements is mostly uncertain,random and dynamic in time.For the non-coal mine safety system risk assessment models,most of them focus on local system risk identification and assessment,and seldom involve the static characteristics of system attributes changing with local management state and the overall dynamic risk assessment of the system.Moreover,it lacks the method of applying to multiple local systems and realizing the overall dynamic feedback of the system.For this reason,the integrated risk management model of non-coal mine safety system risk identification,assessment,classification and daily dynamic supervision is discussed,and the realistic risk assessment theory and method of non-coal mine system attribute risk and dynamic risk aggregation are proposed.The dual goals of non-coal mine safety system risk classification and risk dynamic management and control.The cognitive path of risk characteristics and risk structure of non-coal mine system is expounded.Analyzed the cognitive path of inherent risk attributes,management attributes and dynamic information transmission from the perspective of accident cause.It explains the inherent risk,initial risk and actual risk characteristics,and the coordination method between the system attribute risk structure,and provides a structured theoretical framework for risk assessment indicator analysis.Based on the fact that there are many risk factors in the safety system of complex non coal mines,the main disaster causing factors are analyzed,a risk identification method which combines scenario analysis method,delphi method and spearman correlation coefficient method,and the overall path of risk point identification is proposed.Combining with tailings pond safety risk index screening and risk distribution description can effectively improve the completeness of system risk identification.Taking material,machine,method and media(“4M+E”)and engineering,education,enforcement and culture(“3E+C”)theories as the basis for establishing the major risk index system,a non-coal mine safety system major risk indicator system with inherent risk indicators,risk control indicators and dynamic risk indicators has been formed,which improves the structure and hierarchy of evaluation model.The inherent risk quantification method of system attribute is established.Considering the disturbance of management state to inherent risk,the correction method of inherent risk is proposed to form initial risk.Firstly,an improved DOW method is proposed from the risk coefficient of inherent attribute material of risk points,general method risk coefficient,special method risk coefficient and compensation coefficient of hazardous environment,hazardous media and hazardous machine,realizing the quantification of risk severity of inherent risk index of non-coal mine system.Secondly,in order to solve the problem of difficulty and static in obtaining the risk analysis data of disturbance factors,the FFTA model of causal correlation of risk points is constructed based on risk management and control index,and the initial evaluation parameters are obtained.The probability of occurrence of event risk points is analyzed and judged by DBN model,and the solution method of risk control frequency for inherent risk correction is constructed.Finally,the inherent risk severity index and risk management frequency index of risk point are aggregated into the initial risk of risk point.The inherent risk severity index of the unit risk point is obtained by weight method,and the risk management frequency index of the unit risk point is obtained by mean complement method,and the two are aggregated to form the initial risk of the unit.A realistic risk assessment model for non-coal mine is developed to modify the initial risk of key dynamic indicators.According to the characteristic values of monitoring items,the key dynamic risk index correction method is proposed,the initial risk is dynamically corrected,and the real risk assessment model is integrated after the dynamic timely correction,so as to realize the timely risk assessment coupled with the system attribute and management state.Taking roof fall and spalling as an example,the system risk assessment model is applied to mine practice and the feasibility evaluation is verified.The risk management measures of non-coal mine system are put forward from four aspects of risk identification,inherent risk assessment technology,enterprise risk control and dynamic risk control,providing theoretical basis for the research and development of safety management or risk supervision information system.