Research On The Optimization Model Of Power Supply Structure Based On Ecological Carrying Capacity

In recent years,the rapid economic development has brought severe ecological pressure to China.The ecological civilization construction has been raised to the height of the national strategy,and the protection of ecological carrying capacity is an important task.In response to environmental issues,China is optimizing its energy structure from various aspects such as promoting clean heating and developing non-fossil energy.Electricity is becoming more and more important in the energy system,and clean and efficient power generation is an important topic for sustainable energy development.Therefore,scientific planning of power supply structure is of great significance.The power supply structure dominated by coal-fired power generation has caused severe environmental problems.In recent years,the scale of China's clean energy has accelerated,but excessive development of clean energy will also cause damage to the ecosystem,so energy development needs to be controlled within a certain range to maintain the sustainability of the entire ecosystem.Therefore,the power supply structure planning should fully consider the ecological carrying capacity.Ecological carrying capacity has obvious regional differences.Different regions have different support and capacity for power construction.Therefore,regional differentiation factors should be considered in the power supply structure optimization.This paper comprehensively considers ecological carrying capacity factors and regional differentiation factors,and studies the optimization of power supply structure based on ecological carrying capacity.The main research contents are as follows:(1)The relevant theories of ecological carrying capacity and power supply structure optimization are sorted out and analyzed.First,the basic theories of ecological carrying capacity are explained from three aspects:the concepts,characteristics and quantitative methods.The necessity and feasibility of the consideration of ecological carrying capacity in power supply structure optimization and the requirements of ecological carrying capacity on power supply structure optimization are analyzed.Secondly,the development status of China's power supply structure is studied from two aspects:power generation scale and power generation resource potential.Then,the goals and contents of traditional power supply structure planning and sustainable power supply structure planning are sorted out,and different power supply structure optimization methods are compared and analyzed.Finally,the research boundary of ecological carrying capacity and power supply structure optimization in this paper is defined.The above content lays the theoretical and methodological foundation for the subsequent chapters of this paper.(2)The impact of the replacement of thermal power by clean energy power generation on ecological carrying capacity is studied.The three main clean energy sources in China are hydropower,wind power and photovoltaic power generation,and the impact of the replacement of thermal power by them on ecological carrying capacity is studied.For hydropower,a system dynamics model is first constructed to analyze the way the replacement of thermal power by hydropower affects the ecosystem.Then,based on the elements in the system dynamics model,a coupling coordination degree model of the ecosystem is constructed.Finally,an example is analyzed and policy recommendations are made,including multi-scenario system dynamics simulation and coupling coordination degree evaluation,which verifies the effectiveness of the model.By comparing the research conclusions with current policies,the rationality of the impact analysis is verified.The same methods are used to analyze the impact of the replacement of thermal power by wind power and photovoltaic power on the ecological carrying capacity.The above content is the preliminary basis for the construction of the power supply structure optimization model.(3)The single-region power supply structure optimization model under the ecological resource and environment carrying capacity goals is constructed.The model takes the power generation system of a single area as the research object,incorporates the positive and negative impacts of various types of power generation on ecological resources and the environment at the same time,and optimizes the power supply structure with the goal of minimizing the relative impact of the power generation system on natural resources and the environment.First of all,the research boundary of the problem is defined and the optimization framework is constructed.Then,combined with the analysis of ecological carrying capacity elements and quantitative methods,the objective functions and constraint conditions are established.The objective functions incorporate ecological resource and environment carrying capacity factors,and the constraints reflect the comprehensive carrying capacity factors,including resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity,and socio-economic and technological carrying capacity.In the end,the validity and applicability of the model is verified through multi-scenario empirical analysis,and the power development paths under different resource and environmental development goals are obtained.(4)The single-region power supply structure optimization model under the ecological economic carrying capacity goal is constructed.The model takes the power generation system of a single region as the research object,incorporates carbon trading factors into the model,and optimizes the power supply structure with the goal of minimizing the relative pressure from the total cost of the power generation system on the regional economy.First of all.the research boundary of the problem is defined and the optimization framework is constructed.Then the objective function and constraint conditions are established.The objective function incorporates the economic carrying capacity factor,and the constraint conditions reflect resource carrying capacity.environmental carrying capacity,and socio-economic and technological carrying capacity factors.Finally,the effectiveness and applicability of the model is verified through multi-scenario empirical analysis.How the power supply structure should develop under different carbon trading prices is obtained.And the impact of the trading price of carbon emission permits on resources and the environment by affecting the power supply structure is further studied,providing a basis for the establishment of the trading price of carbon emission permits under different resource and environmental requirements.(5)A single-region power supply structure optimization model based on comprehensive ecological carrying capacity is constructed.The model takes the single-region power generation system as the research object,incorporates the positive and negative effects of various power generation on the ecosystem and carbon trading factors into the model,and optimizes the power supply structure with the goal of minimizing the relative pressure of the power generation system on natural resources,the environment and the regional economy.First of all,the research boundary of the problem is defined and the optimzation framework is constructed.Then,the objective functions and constraint conditions are established.After analysis,for the social and technological carrying capacity,the model only considers its unidirectional impact on the power supply structure.Therefore,the objective functions incorporate resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity factors,and the constraint conditions reflect the resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity,and socio-economic and technological carrying capacity factors.Finally,the validity and applicability of the model is verified through multi-scenario empirical analysis,and the development paths of power sources under different natural and economic development goals are obtained.(6)A cross-regional power supply structure optimization model based on comprehensive ecological carrying capacity is constructed.The model takes the power generation systems of the two regions as the research object,considers the positive and negative effects of various power generation on the ecosystem and carbon trading factors,takes minimizing the relative pressure of the power generation system on the natural resources,environment and economy of the two regions and minimizing the cost of power transmission as the objectives,and synergistically optimizes the power supply structure of the two regions to improve the overall ecological carrying capacity of the two regions.First,the research boundary and optimization framework of the problem are determined.Then,the objective functions and constraint conditions are established.Based on the single-region optimization model,the inter-province and inter-regional power transmission factors are further considered,and the transmission cost objective is added to the objective function.Based on the constraints of the single-region optimization model,cross-region constraints are set to ensure that the constraints of resources,environment,economy,and technology in the two regions are met.Finally,a multi-scenario empirical analysis is carried out.The cross-region optimization results are compared with the single-region optimization results to verify the validity and applicability of the model.The above content provides decision support for multi-regional power planning.