Research On The Decision-making Model Of Multi-agent Participation In Sewage Treatment PPP Project Based On VFM

Sewage treatment public infrastructure plays an increasingly important role in improving water environment.However,the small number of sewage treatment facilities and poor quality of purification have become the important reasons to restrict the effect of water pollution treatment.The traditional management mode built and operated by the government can not meet the requirements of sewage treatment effect in the aspects of project construction,technical level and management mode,thus affecting people's demand for safe water.In this context,the PPP model of government-enterprise cooperation has been vigorously promoted in sewage treatment construction and operation projects.The sewage treatment PPP project has a common demand basis for water resource users,government departments and water enterprises.However,there have been many twists and turns in the trial process of PPP mode of public-private partnership.The fundamental reason is that it fails to balance the interests of multiple participants.The research results of the existing PPP model are mostly from the perspective of the government or social capital,and analyze problems with the method of game,and rarely solve problems with the goal of win-win situation of the multi-participants.This paper breaks through the previous PPP cooperation theory research,From the perspective of people's demand for quality water environment,this paper takes the sewage treatment PPP project as the research object,takes the VFM evaluation that affects the interests of the government and the investment return of the social capital as the main line,and takes into account the user's ability to bear the pollution price.The system dynamics method of information synchronous feedback was used to establish the "multi-agent based cooperative decision-making system dynamics model of sewage treatment PPP project",and the cooperation conditions of stakeholders of all parties were simulated by Vensim software.The study has important application value and theoretical significance for strengthening the fairness in the process of public-private cooperation and improving the implementation efficiency of urban sewage treatment PPP projects.The main research is as follows:(1)Theory related to sewage treatment,PPP model,VFM evaluationThe relevant concepts of sewage treatment,PPP financing mode and VFM evaluation are summarized,and the evaluation index of investment income of sewage treatment PPP project is deeply discussed,as well as the advantages of applying PPP financing mode to sewage treatment project compared with other modes,and the application of VFM evaluation of sewage treatment PPP project and other related theories.(2)Analysis of influencing factors for decision-making of sewage treatment PPP projectThe sewage treatment PPP project involves the interests of multiple parties,and the decision-making factors of each party are different.The public expects to enjoy the social welfare brought by quality water resources environment as soon as possible.The key decision-making factors are the speed and effect of project implementation.Sewage users pay attention to whether the cost of sewage discharge is within their capacity,and the key decision factor is the unit price of sewage treatment charge.VFM evaluation is the main decision-making basis of government policy for PPP projects.Investment income is the main decision-making basis for water enterprises to invest in sewage treatment projects.(3)Cooperative decision-making model of sewage treatment PPP project based on multiple perspectivesAccording to the government's requirement on the VFM value and the water enterprise's requirement on the investment income in the sewage treatment PPP project,the common influencing factors of the interests of both sides are extracted,and the risk quantification model and the tax variation model are constructed.The cooperative decision model of sewage treatment PPP project based on VFM quantitative evaluation is established by using the feedback theory of system dynamics,and the system function is set according to the feedback relationship among various factors in the model.Combined with the above sub-models,a multi-party decision-making model based on sewage treatment PPP project cooperation is built.(4)Model verification and application analysisThe model was simulated with the help of Vensim software,and the applicability of the model was verified from three aspects of comprehensive benefit maximization,cooperation boundary conditions and sensitivity of influencing factors through actual cases.The decision-making model of sewage treatment PPP project cooperation based on multiple perspectives provides a scientific decision-making reference for strengthening the social credibility in the process of government-enterprise cooperation and meeting the interest demands of multiple subjects.