Research On Investment Decision Of Typical Renewable Energy Projects Driven By Carbon Market

Energy shortage,environmental pollution and climate warming have become the focus of attention in the world.The development of a low-carbon economy and the realization of sustainable economic and social development are becoming the common choice of all countries.In view of the depletion of traditional fossil energy and the large amount of greenhouse gas emissions,and nuclear power involving with serious catastrophic risks and long-term radioactive waste,Renewable Energy(RE)seems to provide the only clear solution.Therefore,RE development has become an important breakthrough in coping with global climate change,seeking low-carbon development methods,and achieving sustainable development.The inherent law of RE development makes the decision-making of investment companies slow and complicated,and relevant incentive measures are lagging and may even fail.In this context,it is particularly important to determine the reasonable intensity and timing of RE investment and the effects of RE subsidy policies.Based on this,this thesis takes the three REs(hydropower,wind energy,and solar energy)with the largest proportion of power generation as examples,comprehensively uses the two-factor learning curve model,real option method,and evolutionary game methods to construct a continuous and overall framework for the decision-making value evaluation and decision-making analysis in RE investment,and puts forward a series of countermeasures and suggestions to maintain and promote the healthy,stable and orderly development of RE investment market,which has important theoretical value and practical significance.By combining the two-factor learning curve model with real option method,and taking into account uncertain factors such as thermal power cost,photovoltaic power generation cost,environmental cost,carbon price,government subsidies,etc.,we construct a decision-making value evaluation model for photovoltaic power generation investment projects in the Gobi Desert,and solves it via the extended binary tree model.The study shows that the government will face losses under investing in photovoltaic power generation projects with existing policy subsidies.Therefore,it is necessary to increase government subsidies or increase electricity and carbon prices.Besides,based on the adjustment and withdrawal mechanism of policy subsidies,three different policy subsidy fitting curves are reasonably constructed,and the impacts of subsidies on the decision value of photovoltaic power generation projects and the optimal investment trigger point are also discussed.In view of the market linkage effect of raw materials,based on the real option method,an investment value evaluation model for offshore wind power investment projects is constructed.On the basis of considering the uncertain factors such as offshore wind power investment cost,electricity price,carbon price,and subsidy payment,the market linkage of steel prices is considered as an additional uncertain factor.The established model is applied to the offshore wind farm in Xiangshui,Jiangsu,and the least square Monte Carlo method is used to solve it.The results show that the investment value of offshore wind power projects is negative,and investors should choose to abandon the option or postpone the option until market conditions improve.The sensitivity analysis of the fixed cost,variable cost,electricity price,subsidy,and carbon price of wind power project investment on the project value further proves and quantifies the impact of uncertain factors on the project's net present value and project value.Within the framework of simultaneously investing in several RE technologies and ensuring the safety,continuity and stability of power supply,a diversified investment evaluation model under the conditions of electricity prices,learning rates and uncertain initial costs is constructed on the basis of the real option method.Taking photovoltaics,wind energy,and water power as examples,it investigates the minimum threshold of random electricity prices and the maximum threshold of initial costs when the companies invest in three technologies is profitable.The results show that the learning rate affects investment choices and reduces the trigger threshold of investment.If all capital is invested in photovoltaic power generation or wind power technology,the company will exercise the option at a lower critical threshold.If the capital investment is diversified,options will be exercised at a higher threshold.When all capital is invested in hydropower,the critical threshold is the highest.And more uncertainty about energy prices or technology costs will delay investment choices.Considering the game between local governments and new energy companies in RE projects under the premise of bounded rationality,the evolutionary game models of government and enterprises in offshore wind power projects and desert photovoltaic projects have been established respectively.With the aid of system dynamics theory,this thesis analyzes the behavioral patterns of the two in the game process and the stable strategies under different scenarios,and discusses when to invest in RE projects can achieve a positive and consistent behavioral strategy of government and enterprises and promote the long-term stable development of RE.The results of the game between government and enterprise in offshore wind power projects show that blind investment cannot promote agreement between government and enterprise,and the conditions for investing in offshore wind power will begin in 2019.The study on the game between government and enterprises in desert photovoltaic projects shows that the cost of photovoltaic power generation before 2024 is high,and the investment conditions are immature.After 2026,with the maturity of technology and the improvement of the carbon market,increase of photovoltaic power generation,investing in photovoltaics is the best choice to promote the optimal allocation of resources,economic and social benefits.The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the comprehensive application of the two-factor learning curve model,real option method,evolutionary game and system dynamics method to the evaluation of investment in renewable energy projects with Chinese characteristics.Based on the actual background of China's carbon trading under the new situation,this thesis establishes a reasonable and scientific quantitative analysis theory by combining qualitative and quantitative,and theoretical and empirical analysis.It further innovatively incorporates the environmental costs of desert governance and the market linkage effect of offshore wind power costs into uncertain factors,and gives in-depth discussions on the investment portfolios of different RE projects.By applying the evolutionary game theory into the investment evaluation of RE projects,it also analyzes the behavior patterns of the participants in the game process via system dynamics theory,and illustrates the evolutionary laws vividly with figures.As a consequence,a series of research results in line with China's national conditions are obtained through comparison and analysis,which provides a good solution for better developing projects on renewable energy under the existing national conditions.