Study On The Development Of Population And Environment System In Xiongan New Area

In the literature of demography and statistics,there are a lot of studies on the coordinated development of population,economy,environment,resources and social system.Scholars discuss the impact of population and economic development on the environment and the practical strategies to maintain the coordinated development of social system under various backgrounds.Although more and more countries begin to implement the road of green development,more and more consumers are gradually aware of the importance of protecting the environment,but the growth of population still brings great challenges to environmental protection.There are many forms of coordinated development of population and environment,and whether different forms of population and environment development system can be smooth or not.Implementation,environmental protection has yet to be verified,considering the different reality of the coordinated development of population and environment issues need to be solved.In view of the current academic achievements at home and abroad,there are few researches on the matching degree of coordinated development of population and environment,which cannot meet the needs of scientific decision-making in the process of coordinated development of population and environment in the region.Therefore,this paper focuses on the population and environment of Xiongan New Area.The coordinated development level of population and environment in Xiongan New Area is measured by combining the least square(PLS)path model.Then,the coordination degree of population and environment in Xiongan New Area is classified,and the coordination degree measurement model of population and environment system in Xiongan New Area is constructed.On the basis of coordination degree model,the matching degree model of population and environment coordinated development in Xiongan New Area is constructed.Finally,the symbiotic evolution principle of coordinated development of population and environment in Xiongan New Area is analyzed,and the management suggestions for coordinated development of population and environment in Xiongan New Area are put forward.On this basis,the main contributions of this paper are as follows:(1)The grey system prediction model is used to predict the population growth trend of Xiongan New Area in the next 35 years(2055).The results show that the population of Xiongan New Area will show a trend of "slow-fast-slow-fast",and the population is expected to exceed 2 million in 2050.In this paper,the TOPSIS model based on entropy weight is also used to predict the environmental carrying capacity of Xiongan New Area.The results show that the environmental carrying capacity of Xiongan New Area 4 shows a downward trend before its establishment(before 2016).After the establishment of Xiongan New Area,the environmental carrying capacity of Xiongan New Area is gradually improving.The closeness of its economic system gradually reverts to the fluctuation of 0.5 from less than 0.5.Based on the prediction of population development and environmental carrying capacity in Xiongan New Area,this paper also measures the coordinated development level of population and environment in Xiongan New Area by using(PLS)path model based on least square method.The results show that there are positive and negative levels of coordinated development between population and environment system in Xiongan New Area,and there are great differences in specific periods.However,as a whole,the coordinated development level of population and environment system and its subsystems shows an upward trend.On the whole,the quality dimension has an upward trend on the coordinated development level of population and environment subsystem and the environment and population department of Xiongan New Area.The influence of the overall coordinated development level of Xiongan New Area is relatively small,while the total dimension has a relatively great influence on the coordinated development level of population and environment subsystem and the overall coordinated development level of environment and population system of Xiongan New Area,which further shows that the development of Xiongan New Area has not been removed from the extensive growth side,either in the environment and population system of Xiongan New Area as a whole or in the Xiongan New Area within its subsystem.Moreover,according to the influence of the coordinated development level of population and environment subsystem on the overall coordinated development of environment and population system in Xiongan New Area,the environmental subsystem has the greatest influence on the coordinated development of environment and population system in Xiongan New Area,followed by the population system.(2)The coordination degree measurement model of population and environment in Xiongan New Area is constructed,which lays a foundation for the measurement of population and environment matching degree in Xiongan New Area.Based on the coordinated development model of coincidence system,the coordination grade is divided into two dimensions: misalignment grade and coordination grade,and the internal coordination degree between population and environment in Xiongan New Area is measured in stages.The results show that,on the whole,in the environment and population system of Xiongan New Area,the internal coordination degree of population subsystem is higher than that of environmental subsystem from 2008 to 2019,but on average,after the construction of Xiongan New Area,the environmental subsystem of this area is higher.And the population subsystem will begin to show a state of disharmony;From the data results of coordination degree year by year,the changing trend of coordination degree between environment subsystem and population subsystem in Xiongan New Area is consistent,and both of them evolve in the opposite direction,and the trend and degree are basically the same,which indicates that although both the environment subsystem and the population subsystem are beginning to show signs of misalignment,there is still an interdependent relationship between the two subsystems of population and environment.It shows that the environment and population of Xiongan New Area have not formed the situation of competition with each other.From the point of view of phased changes,with the national attention to Xiongan New Area,the implementation of various policies has led to the implementation of various policies.The changes of the internal coordination degree of the environmental subsystem and the population subsystem show that the external policy will have an impact on the coordination relationship between the environment and the population,and this impact is very significant.At the same time,the policy will not only affect the change direction of the subsystem,but also affect the degree of internal coordination of the subsystem.(3)The matching degree of the coordinated development of population and environment in Xiongan New Area is analyzed.In this paper,the entropy method and barycenter model are used to calculate the influence degree of each evaluation index on the comprehensive evaluation,and then the moving direction and distance of the barycenter of each regional element deviate from the geometric center of gravity according to the barycenter model.Based on this,the dynamic evolution characteristics and spatial matching relationship between population and environmental center of gravity in Xiongan New Area are analyzed.The results show that there are no significant differences in the comprehensive index of environment and population among Xiongxian County,Rong Cheng and Anxin in the three main regions of Xiongan New Area from 2009 to 2018.The overall trend is stable,the comprehensive index of the environment in the future shows a downward trend,and the comprehensive index of the population shows an upward trend.The state policy promotes the establishment of Xiongan New Area,and develops the population,economy,and pulling force in the east and west direction of the region,which has obvious influence on the balance between population and environment in Xiongan New Area.The strong influence makes the population center of gravity of Xiongan New Area shift southeast,while the environmental center of gravity shifts to the northwest.Moreover,the deviation of the east-west direction is obviously larger than that of the north-south direction.The deviation amplitude of the environment is just the opposite.In addition,the deviation of the population is more obvious than that of the environment.The evolution trajectory of population and environment matching degree in Xiongan New Area is M-shaped and mismatched as a whole.The application of the center of gravity model can well reflect the movement track of the center of gravity of population and environment in Xiongan New Area,and the spatial deviation direction and degree of the center of gravity of population and environment can be quantitatively and visually analyzed,which shows that the center of gravity model is effective in the study of the matching degree between population and environment in Xiongan New Area.(4)This paper studies the internal evolution of the coordination and symbiosis between the environment and the population system in the Xiongan New Area,and analyses the relationship between the environment of the new district and the evolution of the population system,the relationship between the environment of the new district and the internal coordination and evolution of the population system,and the local steady state.Based on the analysis of the relationship between population and environment in the environment and population system of the New District of Xiongan,a competition model is established;secondly,the comprehensive index and the index system of the evolution of the environment and the population system are determined according to the order degree analysis;and then,the cooperative evolution model of the environment and the population system in the Xiongan New Area is established;and finally,An empirical analysis is made on the cooperative evolution model of the environment and the population system in the New Area of the Xiongan New Area.Results of the study it is shown that the comprehensive development level of the population in the future of the Xiongan New Area will exceed the equilibrium point,and the resource environment will be developed towards the stable point.According to the index order,it can be seen that the environment resource reserve of the current Xiongan New Area is not sufficient,and the environmental resources need to be reasonably planned and utilized.How to improve the environmental carrying capacity and how to plan the industrial layout will be the main problems in Xiongan New Area in the future.