Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area Population Carrying Capacity

The conception of'capacity'originated from bionomics. It means the maximal quantity of species of biology which entironment can support, while the biogeocenose's resource and entironment's capacity aren't weakened. Then, with the bringing forward of resource and environment matters, anthropologist and biologist put the concept of "Carrying capacity" into human bionomics, so that population carrying capacity came into being. During more than 30 years of China's rapid economic growth today, we made tremendous socio-economic development outcomes, but a great deal of problems came forth, of which the resources and environmental damage is particularly serious. In Chongqing Three Gorges reservoir area, the reservoir area of environmental degradation, inadequate resources and other issues came forth due to the construction of the Three Gorges Project, migrant relocation, and so on. Therefore the study of environment and population carrying capacity of the reservoir area is even more necessary.This paper analyzes the literatures of domestic and international population carrying capacity. In combination with the reality of Chongqing Three Gorges reservoir area on the basis of demographic research, this paper builds a "model of regional population carrying capacity", launches on regional population carrying capacity qualitative state research, and then quantitatively simulates and predicts the results of the evaluation of an instance of the regional analysis. At last it puts forward corresponding countermeasures. The main study includes:1. To build the structure of population bearing capacity in Chongqing Three Gorges reservoir area. Based on the related study of domestic and international population carrying capacity, build the analysis framework of population bearing capacity in Chongqing.2. To analyze the actual population of Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area. This analysis consists of actual population status, urbanization characteristics, population migration and so on.3. To build the population carrying capacity model of Chongqing Three Gorges reservoir area. This paper draws on existing research's methodology, constructs a reasonable model of population carrying capacity on the basis of the actual situation of the population, and then put them into application. The qualitative and quantitative research of population carrying capacity of Chongqing Three Gorges reservoir area is analyzed from two aspects. The first is single factor from the point of view, and the second is relative population carrying capacity. On basis of population forecasting model, this paper builds a function to make a detailed forecast of population. Through the projected population size and demographic realities of the reservoir area in Chongqing, it conduct a comparative analysis and does related discussions.4. After the analysis of population carrying capacity of Chongqing Three Gorges reservoir area, it puts forward a reasonable estimate of population size on basis of counting population carrying capacity. At last, to sum up the whole paper and make relevant policy recommendations.We get the following conclusions: 1. The regional population carrying capacity is jointly decided by three sub-systems of carrying capacity. According to the definition of the relevant theories drew on the population carrying capacity by this paper, and a large number of their empirical analysis,the region's population carrying capacity is thought to be jointly decided by three single-elements ,that is ,natural resources carrying capacity, environmental carrying capacity, and socio-economic carrying capacity .2. Socio-economic carrying capacity becomes conspicuous in the region's population carrying capacity. Due to the limitations on regional natural resources, while the region's population is continuously growing, the region's population carrying capacity is limited by natural resources constraints in the large aspects. However, the acceleration of socio-economic development makes the region's fastest increase in the socio-economic carrying capacity; thereby the growth of the region's population carrying capacity is supported.3. Serious overload exists in the Three Gorges reservoir area in Chongqing, and there is a more serious trend. Through both theoretical and empirical studies of the migration of the reservoir and dam population carrying capacity, we have found that although the region's population carrying capacity has increased year by year, its growing speed is still unable to meet the population growth. Although GDP of the reservoir area has increased rapidly in recent years, its labor absorption capacity has not evidently improved, and socio-economic development there remains to be further enhanced.4. Population migration eases population pressure in the reservoir area and also has a negative impact on it. Although the reservoir's emigrating population releases the contradiction between the ecology and development ,and also between the land and the people, it has brought a greater negative impact on urbanization of the reservoir area , a large number human resources of high-quality emigrating and labor force of high-quality in the reservoir area weakened. The settlement of people of non-high-quality in the urban and rural areas not only speeds up the aging process but accelerates social and psychological variation, and increases the burden on urban development, which is not conducive to social and economic development.