The Research On Dairy Products Safety Risk Identification And Risk Assessment Based On Supply Chain

Dairy products have become an indispensable nutrient in more and more People's Daily life.However,while the demand and production of dairy products are increasing,People are facing more and more problems in the safety of dairy products.Therefore,in terms of dairy products,it is of great significance to launch research on its supply chain,so that the dairy supply chain risk target system can be established,and the supply chain risk evaluation can be conducted through correlation analysis of risk factors,so as to strengthen the quality and safety of dairy products.The main research contents are as follows:At present,About dairy products in the supply chain risk identification study,the risk of the supply chain is divided into two levels,one is a political,economic and other aspects of risk,the other is a risk on the level of operation,technology,management and so on,and then in the two aspects of the risk factors in the concrete elaboration,detailed methods such as questionnaire survey method,literature method,eventually make these risk factors can display a has a hierarchical structure,so that to identify them.Through such division,the advantage is that the risk can be grasped and controlled on the macro level,while the disadvantage is that the analysis is not detailed enough,leading to sometimes not very good results.Faced with many problems,this paper studies based on the supply chain operation reference model,through the process modeling on the value target,further explore its internal specific risk factors,risk target risk framework and the basic framework for function,at the same time the target framework to implement synchronous decomposition,dairy products supply chain risk target system is established.Most of the researches on risk identification of food supply chain remain in the stage of qualitative analysis,without distinguishing the risk influencing factors in the supply chain,and without in-depth analysis of the internal structure of the factors.Therefore,based on the traditional interpretative structure model,according to the shortcomings and limitations of the interpretative structure model,this paper proposes an improved fuzzy interpretive structure model,and combines the influence matrix multiplication classification method to carry out hierarchical division and category analysis of risk factors.Then,the key risk factors were classified by the influence matrix multiplication classification(MICMAC),and the driving effects of risk factors on dairy supply chain at all levels were analyzed according to the explanatory structure model diagram of key risk factors and the driving-dependence classification diagram.In order to solve the problem of weighting the influencing factors in the process of dairy product safety evaluation,a partial ordered set evaluation model was proposed based on partial ordered set theory.The importance of the factors affecting the safety of dairy products was identified by using the level set information presented by HASSE diagram.The model was used to analyze the data of infant milk powder,and the multi-level structure affecting the safety of dairy products was obtained,which provided an effective basis for early warning of dairy products safety.The results show that the model avoids the uncertainty of weight in the previous research and overcomes the problem that the small amount of data can not be applied.In the research of dairy product quality and safety risk assessment,it is very difficult to quantify the risk from the limited data full of fuzziness and randomness.Nowadays,many theoretical methods have been applied in food safety risk assessment.However,there is no concise and useful qualitative and quantitative transformation model for these methods,and they often fail to notice the variability in the assessment process.In all risks,the performance and importance of each risk are different,and they also have different effects on the evaluation results.Therefore,different risk factors have different weights,and the risk size is also different.Generally speaking,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)will present the importance of each other by calculating the weight of each risk factor and establishing a comparative evaluation matrix in pairs.However,by this method,the contingency and uncertainty of judgment cannot be truly reflected.In order to solve this problem,the traditional method is improved on the basis of the cloud model to become a comprehensive evaluation model based on the cloud model.In this paper,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is improved on the judgment matrix based on the importance scale cloud model.The membership function in the fuzzy method can be confirmed through the cloud model,and the group judgment can be realized through the comprehensive cloud model.Finally,practical cases are used to prove that this method is effective and operable.