| Under the disturbance of rockburst,the complex system of coal mine is very fragile,so it is an urgent requirement of preventing and resolving the risk of major rockburst accidents in coal mines in China.Based on the complexity and correlation of personnel,equipment,environment,technology,management and other factors in the coal mine system,this paper takes the typical rockburst accident of coal mine as the research object.Comprehensive use of accident cause theory,complex system theory,complex network theory,risk entropy theory,fuzzy theory,control theory and other related theories,the research on risk management and control of coal mine rockburst accident were carried out through the combination of theoretical research,case analysis,simulation test,numerical simulation and field observation,systematically.The paper has made important research progress in the risk evolution,risk assessment,risk prevention and control of coal mine rock burst accidents.Finally,a set of risk evolution,evaluation,control models,methods,and technical systems for rockburst accidents in complex systems of coal mines are formed,which provides a reference for the prevention and resolution of major rockburst accident risks in coal mines in China.The article mainly carried out the following research work:(1)The Heinrich accident chain theory is used to analyze the unsafe behavior of people and the unsafe state of things that lead to coal mine rock burst accidents.Using energy transfer theory,the physical evolution process of rockburst from the perspective of matter and energy was analyzed,and the material flow,energy flow transfer and transformation relations of rockburst occurrence,development and evolution was revealed.Meanwhile,the process of rock burst is divided into three stages:rock impact material or energy input,rock impact material or energy transfer,and rock impact material or energy release.Taking a number of typical coal mine rock burst accidents from 2014 to 2020 as the research object,the general characteristics of coal mine rock burst accidents are analyzed based on the analysis of the composition and characteristics of the complex system of coal mines.The comprehensive cause theory model was used to analyze the risk factors of rock burst accidents,and analyze the direct causes,indirect causes and event triggering conditions of rock burst accidents.The risk factors of rock burst accidents were comprehensively identified,and the internal relevance of their influencing factors was found out,and a coal mine rock burst accident risk index system that includes 5 firstlevel indicators and 60 risk index factors was proposed.(2)Using risk entropy theory and complex network theory,according to the established coal mine rock burst accident risk index factors,and aiming at the structural characteristics of the coal mine complex system and the vulnerability of the rock burst accident risk state,the coal mine complex system rock burst accident risk evolution topology model was constructed.A risk entropy function was established to characterize the evolution of rock burst accident risk,and deal with the fuzzy uncertainty of accident risk.At the same time,the risk transmission path of rock burst accidents is abstracted into a weighted acyclic directed graph,and the size and evolution process of the risk of rock burst accidents are measured by the length of the transmission path,and the risk evolution mode leading to the occurrence of rock burst accidents is explored.The importance of each risk factor,the correlation degree and the transmission path of non-topological factors that lead to rockburst accidents are obtained.Finally,based on the concept of breaking the loop of the risk evolution path,the key factors of accident risk is proposed to eliminate the evolution and development of rock burst accident risk.(3)Comprehensive use of set pair analysis,entropy weight multi-attribute decisionmaking,bayesian network and cloud model and other related theories,aiming at the uncertainty and ambiguity of the essential attributes of rock burst accident risk,the risk assessment of rock burst accidents based on the entropy weight multi-attribute decisionmaking model of GRA-SPA is constructed from the severity and ease of rock burst accident risk in two aspects.At the same time,aiming at the subjectivity,one-sidedness,and limitations of the evaluators' understanding of the qualitative evaluation indicators of risk assessment,and the uncertainty of the evaluation levels in the quantitative scoring evaluation process,a cloud model of the risk level of rock burst accidents was constructed.Then,the expectation and entropy of the overall evaluation cloud of rock burst risk is obtained,and the safety level judgment interval of each evaluation object is determined.Finally,the bayesian feedback algorithm is used to modify and test the evaluation results to make the evaluation results more objective and accurate,and to provide support for the bursts risk classification and management of coal mine.(4)Using system theory and control theory,aiming at the complexity,uncertainty and dynamic characteristics of rockburst accidents,the risk of rockburst accidents is prevented and controlled from the perspective of system control.The STAMP system theoretical control model and the STPA system safety analysis method are used to construct the STAMP/STPA control and feedback model of the coal mine burst prevention and control system.Then,the accident risk factors and constraints of the rockburst prevention and control system is identified,the multi-agent and multi-level safety control structure is defined,and the unsafe control behaviors and key factors that caused the accident is analyzed.At the same time,the constraint failure behavior and safety control structure of each control system,execution system and sensing system in the model are proposed.(5)According to the STAMP/STPA control and feedback model of risk prevention and control system of rockburst accident,the control system is defined as the organization management organization and personnel system of rockburst prevention.The execution system is defined as the construction department and operator system of rockburst prevention.The sensing system is defined as rockburst monitoring system and safety management and supervision department.From the aspects of organization,management,personnel,technical system,etc.,a related model and feedback loop of rockburst accident risk control are formed.The results show that,from the aspects of organization,management,personnel,technical system,etc.,a related model and feedback loop of rockburst accident risk control are formed,and communication,coordination and feedback paths between levels are established.At the same time,it solves the problems of improper organization and management,human-computer interaction and poor information feedback during the risk transmission process of rock burst accidents.Finally,taking the "11·3" major rock burst accident in Qianqiu coal mine and "10.20" major rock burst typical accidents of Longyun coal mine as examples,the physical process and environmental conditions of rockburst accident are analyzed,the incorrect constraints of system monitoring layer are identified,the inappropriate control decisions of control layer and the control failure behavior of executive layer are explored,and the STAMP/STPA risk control model of rockburst accident is established respectively.Finally,from the aspects of enterprise organization management,working mechanism system,personnel management and technical system,countermeasures and suggestions for risk control of rockburst accidents are put forward,which makes the organization and management of rockburst prevention more effective and the safety responsibility of rockburst prevention more clear.Figure[66]Table[25]Reference[189]... |
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