Study On Quantitative Risk Assessment For Major Accidents Of Industrial Storage Tanks

With the rapid development of modern petroleum and petrochemical industry, equipment for petrol refining and processing are increasing and increasing. Fire and explosion accidents happen frequently as most of materials are flammable, explosive and toxic. Once catastrophic accidents take place, enormous person casualty, loss of property and environment damage will occur especially in highly dangerous location such as the petrochemical factories and oil storage tank plants. So it is of great important economic and realistic significance for studying on quantitative risk assessment of major accidents for industrial storage tanks, presenting risk forecast of analysis objectives in advance, realizing risk characteristics, evaluating probability of catastrophic accidents of systems in addition to analyze corresponding accident consequence, estimating risk whether is acceptable or not and providing theoretical bases for accepting, controlling and eliminating the risk. In this thesis quantified methods of uncertainty factors in risk assessments are researched and simulated with Monte-Carlo (MC) method in the light of the random characteristic of influencing factors of risk probability. Risk assessment models of industrial storage tanks are built for blast wave of Vapor Cloud Explosion (VCE) and fireball radiation in Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE). Based on this, corresponding rule of risk levels is established. Quantitative assessment of risk probability of hurt modes for major accidents is available. Gravity degree assessment of accident consequence for storage tanks is also studied. As the information of risk itself is fuzzy, basic theory of fuzzy mathematics is used for quantifying assessment indices of gravity degree. And calculation methods of casualty and property loss range can be deduced by the mathematical models of major accident consequence of industrial storage tanks. After investigating the accidents happened, four indices are induced. Index weights are confirmed with Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of gravity degree for accident consequence of industrial storage tanks is presented. Furthermore, the level of gravity degree is established. Considering man's subjective and dynamic role in controlling occurrence and consequence gravity degree of accidents, namely risk counteraction factors, extension engineering method is introduced. Three indices of risk, i.e. probability and consequence of the accident especially risk counteraction factors, are considered comprehensively and quantified. Risk assessment technique of extension engineering method of major accidents for industrial storage tanks is presented. Moreover, real risk level of storage tanks is built. On the basis risk management can be carried out aiming at the risk level.