| In the beginning of this new Century, Chinese economic growth rate maintains high and the GDP has ranked the second in the world. However, economic growth does not mean the disappearance of social contradiction. New factors that restrict sustainable development of China, such as atmospheric pollution, environmental degradation, resource scarcity, arise continuously. The Eighteenth Congress of Chinese Communist Party proposed to vigorously promote the construction of ecological civilization, namely that economic development and social progress are as important as keeping the cyan hill green water and blue sky white clouds, so as to implement the national sustainable development. The pressing matter of electric power industry is adjusting the electric energy structure, changing the mode of production of electric energy, promoting electric industrial upgrading, optimizing resource configuration in the system of electric power supply and demand, at the time, solving the contradiction between power supply and demand. For a long time, the electric power supply and demand system is known for its high emissions and pollution that contribute to most of the PM2.5pollution and greenhouse gases. It becomes an important department relating to national energy and environment security. Substitution optimizing of electric power resources is the improvement of the electric power supply and demand system, so that the electric power industry can advance along the direction of sustainable development. The development of electric power industry comprises the benefit of environment, economic and society. Electricity production has great potential to be tapped optimization regardless in the stage of initial electric power resources selection, or in the stage of power transmission, distribution and consumption.In this paper, the supply guarantee problem of electric power resources was researched in light of both the present development situation of electric power resources industry and the current situation of electric energy structure of China. By use of the means of economics, dynamic optimization, optimal control, system dynamics and game theory, the existing problems in the traditional power supply was researched. The path of substitution optimization, the strengthen construction of incentive mechanism of substitution optimization and the strategy of implementation of substitution optimization of electric power resources were suggested. This paper mainly studies as following:(1) The demand and supply structure of electric energy of China were analyzed, then the literature of electric power resources alternative was studied. A conclusion was acquired that the demand of electric energy is too large and the structure of electric energy is unreasonable. So, it is necessary to carry out the study of path and mechanism construction of electric power resources substitution optimization.(2) An endogenous economic growth model considering capital substitution was established and conditions of steady economic growth of China was analyzed. Accordingly, the economic growth constrained by the natural resources was interpreted. We got a conclusion that the adequate capital investment can be ensured to develop the substitution of nature resources, and the substitution resources for sustainable development that the state needed can be orderly obtained, only on the condition that the economic growth rate of China controlled around6%.(3) An electric power resource pricing model which only includes two kinds of electric power resources was improved in order to analyze the necessary conditions to maximizing the value of electric power resources. The constraints of external impact of substitution optimization and the ideal alternative point between two kind of electric power resources were discussed. On the basis of it, the external non economic of power production was deemed to the main reason slowed the development of substitution electric power resource industry. The mechanism construction recommendations were proposed to eliminate external influence and encourage the development of substitution of electric power sources.(4) A basic growth ceiling model of energy efficiency in electric power supply and demand system is constructed, and the causes of growth ceiling of energy efficiency were analyzed. In order to solve the problems of energy efficiency growth ceiling the second development and reconstruction of electric power supply and demand system are suggested to eliminate the disadvantage factors restraining energy efficiency growth. In order to improve energy efficiency of electric power supply and demand system and breakthrough the growth ceiling of energy efficiency, a mechanism construction of system development of several subsystem were introduced, such as the terminal management subsystem, government invest on energy efficiency subsystem, user response subsystem, self-discipline power plant subsystem and smart grid subsystem. (5) Based on the analysis of present situation and prospect of electric power resources, an investment optimization model of alternative electric power resources was constructed, and the optimal alternative path was carried out. In view of the technical potential deference existing in the industry of alternative power resources, a stage game model was constructed, and the optimal strategy of small mold development for the technology after party was founded by using backward induction method. On the basis of it, by relying mainly on traditional unclean exhausted electric power resources transited to rely mainly on alternative electric power resources of electric energy supply structure, the government should establish a good industrial developing incentive mechanism, and the corresponding fiscal policy should be timely introduced, and increase investment of industry of substitution electric power resources and energy efficiency electric power resources investment should be encouraged. |
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