| Energy is the basis of the development of human society.With the increasing demand for energy,the over exploitation of traditional fossil energy not only depletes the fossil energy resources,but also causes serious damage to the environment.Vigorously developing clean energy is an inevitable choice to relieve energy pressure and improve the environment,as well as the core content of energy transformation in various countries.In the past decade,China's clean energy industry,represented by wind power and solar power generation,has been developing rapidly,with the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power ranking first in the world.However,with the rapid development of clean energy industry,due to the lack of reasonable planning,the level of clean energy resources,project allocation and demand intensity in local areas do not match in space,which leads to serious consumption risk and becomes a huge challenge for the sustainable development of clean energy industry in China.The matching of resources,market and demand is an important basis for the efficient operation of high proportion clean energy power system.The flexibility of RPD chain determines its operation efficiency.Therefore,the research on flexible matching and optimal allocation of regional clean energy RPD chain has theoretical and practical significance for regional clean energy planning and project layout.In this dissertation,the "Resource-Project-Demand"(RPD)chain of regional clean energy is taken as the research object,the spatial characteristics of RPD chain of regional clean energy are deeply analyzed,and the flexible matching and optimal allocation of RPD chain of regional clean energy are studied,in order to provide decision support for regional clean energy industry planning and project layout.The main contents of this dissertation include the following four parts:(1)Analysis of structure and spatial characteristics of regional clean energy RPD chain.Compared with the traditional power system,this thesis constructs a regional clean energy RPD chain structure model with the dimensions of management,technology chain and energy supply chain,and analyzes the characteristics of the link.Secondly,based on the spatial theory,according to the spatial characteristics of regional clean energy RPD chain,the spatial autocorrelation analysis model,spatial clustering analysis model and spatial differentiation analysis model of RPD chain are constructed,and the spatial characteristics of wind and solar energy resources in Mengxi region are explored by using the spatial characteristics analysis model.(2)Flexibility measurement of regional clean energy RPD chain.Through the analysis of the relevant literature of energy system,identify the flexible resources in the RPD chain system of regional clean energy,and analyze the characteristics of flexible resources from two aspects of physical flexibility and institutional flexibility.On this basis,build a quantitative index system of flexible evaluation,and take the contribution of flexible resources to clean energy consumption as the index weight basis,combined with expert opinions,use AHP analysis The method gives weight to each index,combines the calculation and weight of clean energy flexibility index to build the flexibility measurement model,and then measures the flexibility of RPD chain according to the regional index score and index weight.(3)Flexible matching analysis of regional clean energy RPD chain.In order to analyze and compare the flexibility adequacy of regional clean energy RPD chain and the adaptability of clean energy projects in the link environment,based on the flexible operation efficiency index of regional clean energy RPD chain,this dissertation constructs the evaluation index system of flexible matching degree of regional clean energy RPD chain.On this basis,according to the loss rate and loss amount of clean energy,the mismatch risk model which can reflect the degree of link flexibility matching is constructed.Based on the three-dimensional space of utilization hours?consumption rate and mismatch risk,this dissertation constructs a flexible adaptability evaluation model of clean energy projects.By using the evaluation index of flexible matching,mismatch risk measurement model and project flexible adaptability evaluation model,the flexible matching degree of RPD chain of regional clean energy and the adaptability of various power sources can be comprehensively analyzed.(4)Optimizing the configuration of regional clean energy RPD chain.Based on the analysis system of flexible matching degree of RPD chain of regional clean energy and the difference of flexible matching degree between regions,a dynamic model of regional clean energy loce system is constructed based on the general energy loce model,and the loce values of clean energy projects with the same configuration in different regions are calculated.Combining the power generation loce of regional clean energy project with the demand of regional clean energy,taking the lowest cost of regional clean energy development as the goal,and taking the electric quantity,clean energy ratio,overall consumption level and network constraints as the constraints,the RPD chain capacity planning model of regional clean energy is constructed.After getting the results of zoning capacity planning,using the method of geospatial data mining,this dissertation constructs a potential area mining model aiming to find the most potential area for consumption,and finds the sub areas suitable for clean energy development to guide the project layout.By using the optimized allocation method of clean energy RPD chain,the cost of regional clean energy development can be reduced on the premise of improving the flexible matching degree of clean energy RPD chain.The innovation of this dissertation is mainly reflected in:(1)The spatial characteristics analysis model of regional clean energy RPD chain is constructed.Based on the spatial analysis theory,the spatial correlation,spatial heterogeneity and spatial heterogeneity analysis models of clean energy RPD chain are constructed.According to the models,the spatial characteristics of regional clean energy resources endowment,project efficiency level and demand intensity can be deeply explored.The results can clearly reflect the spatial agglomeration and differentiation characteristics of clean energy resources and consumption level.According to the empirical research results,it is found that the RPD chain spatial characteristics analysis model proposed in this dissertation has a high practical value in the study of regional resource characteristics,consumption patterns and consumption potential regions,which is suitable for resource evaluation and project location in regions with high clean energy resource endowment.(2)A flexible measurement model of regional clean energy RPD chain is constructed.The flexibility evaluation of power system is usually from the operation level,and the flexibility evaluation index is not suitable to measure the overall flexibility level of the system in a long time scale.In view of the shortcomings of the existing index system,this thesis,based on the perspective of flexible resources,identifies the flexible resources in the RPD chain of regional clean energy.From the five dimensions of generation flexibility,grid flexibility,energy storage flexibility,demand side flexibility and market flexibility,it establishes the index system including 12 flexible quantitative evaluation indexes,and then establishes the flexibility evaluation of RPD chain of regional clean energy based on AHP analysis Model.The flexibility measurement method proposed in this study can be used to compare the flexibility of the same region in different years,which can provide theoretical support for the formulation of regional clean energy consumption strategy.(3)A flexible matching model of regional clean energy RPD chain is constructed.Based on the operation efficiency of RPD chain of regional clean energy,this dissertation proposes the concept of flexible matching degree of RPD chain of clean energy,extracts the evaluation index of flexible matching degree according to the causality of operation index,and constructs the risk measurement model of flexible mismatch of RPD chain of regional clean energy.In addition.according to the flexibility matching index of clean energy projects,this dissertation constructs an optimal spatial model of regional clean energy project adaptability,which reflects the viability of clean energy projects.The evaluation method of flexible matching degree proposed in this study can not only be used to evaluate the flexible matching degree of RPD chain of regional clean energy,but also,according to the comparison results of the adaptability of different types of clean energy power,it can judge the types of regional advantage projects and provide reference for the regional development focus.(4)The optimal allocation model of regional clean energy RPD chain is constructed.The existing clean energy planning is driven by resource endowment,ignoring the balance of supply and demand in clean energy space.On the basis of flexible matching of regional clean energy,this dissertation puts forward the concept of regional clean energy loce and potential consumption area,applies the flexible theory and spatial analysis theory to regional clean energy power planning,and constructs the optimal allocation model of regional clean energy RPD chain.Whether in the process of regional clean energy capacity planning or in the process of mining clean energy consumption potential,the model considers the difference of resource endowment,consumption level and demand level in different regions.The RPD chain optimization method proposed in this dissertation takes into account the flexible matching of resource project demand and improves the link flexibility level in the cost optimal way.It is suitable for the regions with high clean energy installation level and serious consumption risk.It can provide a feasible planning tool for regional energy management organizations to plan clean energy industry and project layout. |
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