Mode Choice Modeling And Congestion Pricing Considering Internal And External Factors

With the rapid development of cities,"urban diseases" such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution have become increasingly serious.As one of the traffic demand management measures,the congestion pricing scheme is "favored" by more and more cities.Although the congestion pricing scheme can control the demand of cartrip to a certain extent,how to fundamentally restrain the stickiness of car use and increase the demand for public transportation is a major difficulty in ensuring the longterm effectiveness of the policy.In addition,most of the charging forms are relatively simple and cannot consider the driving time and distance of the vehicle simultaneously.Therefore,based on the time-based and distance-based congestion pricing scheme,this paper proposes another congestion pricing scheme by charging travel time + travel distance simultaneously,and explores travelers' mode choice preference under the three schemes.This thesis first identifies the external and internal factors that influence mode choice.Then a mode-choice prediction model is established based on the identified factors.Successively,considering the interaction between travel behavior and congestion rates,a bi-level programming model is established to solve the pricing problem.The results of this paper can help to identify sensitive attributes and travelers corresponding to different schemes,which provides a basis for the differentiated design of pricing scheme.Moreover,the proposed model also provides a formulation method for finding a reasonable and optimal charging model.The main research content of this thesis includes the following aspects:(1)Analyzing the mode choice preferences of heterogeneous travelers under different policies.Based on the actual travel behavior survey data,the travelers are classified by the heterogeneity of trip purpose and car use stickiness.Then,according to the survey data of mode choice willingness,this paper establishes a bi-level logistic model to analyze mode selection preferences of heterogeneous travelers and identify the key factors influencing mode selection under different policies.(2)Modeling travelers' internal psychological decision-making process under different congestion pricing scheme.Considering the internal mechanism of travelers' mode decision,this paper establishes a framework model to characterize travelers' internal decision process based on SSBC theory.The multi-dimensional influence mechanism including the interaction among latent variables,the correlation between them and their corresponding measured variables,and the influence of latent variables on mode decision is explored and compared among heterogeneous travelers.(3)Establishing a comprehensive model for predicting model choice under different policies.Based on the external variables and internal psychological decisionmaking process,the interaction between latent variables and external variables is further considered,this paper incorporates the attributes of individual characteristicstravel characteristics-policy characteristics-psychological characteristics to establish a travel mode choice model corresponding to different congestion charging policies.According to the model results,the influence mechanism of external attributes and psychological attributes on mode selection under different schemes is identified,and the mode selection utility is determined.(4)Establishing a bi-level programming model for congestion pricing based on travel mode selection.Allowing for the interaction between travel behavior and congestion pricing,a two-level programming model is established to solve the pricing problem.The lower-level model adopts stochastic user equilibrium theory to express individual travel decision,i.e.,mode and path selection.The upper-level model aims to maximize social welfare including carbon emission,cost and demand.And an algorithm combining MSA(Method of Successive Averages)and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the model.Finally,a calculation example is designed to verify the effectiveness of the model,and to compare the implementation effects of the three policies.