Research On Congestion Pricing Effect Of Residents’ Trip Mode Choice In Xi’an

With the rapid development of economy and the great improvement of urbanization level,the private cars have increased rapidly in quantity, and the problem of traffic congestion isbecoming more and more serious in recent years. As one of the traffic demand managementmeasures, the feasibility of congestion charges has been confirmed in many foreign cities. Itplays an important role in changing people’s transportation mode and easing traffic congestionphenomenon.The dissertation analyses the factors affecting the trip mode choices theoretically.Through the qualitative analysis of congestion pricing on the residents’ trip mode choice, theclassification and summary on the foreign congestion pricing model and the, the dissertationdraws problems of our cities in implementing congestion pricing. Secondly, Xi’an residents’trip mode selection intention research is made. The dissertation determines the scope ofinvestigation, sample size, uses SP and RP method, and focuses on the individual andcomprehensive analysis of survey data. The dissertation determines the probabilistic neuralnetwork and MNL to establish the trip mode choice model under the condition of congestionpricing in Xi’an by introducing the the commonly used transport model split basiccharacteristics. The dissertation uses the functional features of MATLAB and SPSS to finishthe network establishment, network training, model validation, variable selection, parameterestimation and other steps. Then it compares the accuracy and effect of two models based onthe hit rate of survey results and predictive value. Finally, the dissertation demostates thenecessity and feasibility of congestion pricing in Xi’an based on its traffic status. Andaccording to the Xi’an residents trip choice intention survey data, residents’ trip survey data ofXi ’an in2008, the Ming city wall traffic volume and speed survey data, and the advancedforeign experience of congestion pricing cities, the dissertation determines the congestioncharging schemes from aspects of the pricing area, pricing time, pricing object, pricing modeand pricing rates.