Research On Optimization Of International Continental Port Planning Method Based On Spatial Genetic Theory

International dry ports can effectively prompt economic growth of China's mainland,improve transportation capacity and the competitiveness of coastal ports and play a vital role in the development of inland logistics industry.Development of dry ports in China started relatively late coupled with lack of theoretical inputs and proven practices,it has seen a gap from many of its foreign counterparts.Due to geological conditions and economic capacity,there is no unified design theory both home and abroad.Further,a lack of technical specifications from logistic industry has caused spontaneous and misinformed construction of dry ports.The investigation has shown that location choice issues,forecasted scope of development,incoherent functional modules and etc.are the major problems of planning of international dry ports.In the meantime,planning methodologies and theories are not systematic,which cannot lend scientific support to the construction of dry ports.Therefore,further studies of planning theories,optimization of planning methodologies and establishment of complete planning schemes are of both theoretical and practical significance towards rational construction and sound operation of dry ports.Spatial genetic theory is free of a specific issue and is widely applied to different research areas with features of optimized functions and combinations.This study teamed up spatial genetic theory with traditional planning methodologies.Choice of location,layout of functional areas and schemes of indicators are included in this study,which has put forward a multi-layered planning methodology for international dry ports based on spatial genetic theory.This study has included the following major topics.(1)Investigation into the choice of location based on probability.Factors affecting the choice of location have been analyzed based on Bayesian network method whereas quantitative analysis has been followed up on the same with the use of hierarchical cluster method.Bayesian network is applied in the study to evaluate the reliability of choice of location from the results of hierarchical cluster method.Risk analysis on dry ports is conducted with the help of Bayesian network – grey theory.Risk probability is generated correspondingly with the establishment of the Bayesian network structure map.Such investigation has revealed that the Bayesian probability network method is capable of sufficiently incorporating factors such as scale of city,economic capacity,logistic flow and etc.It has minimized the impact of subjective human factors and increased the logical and reliable choices for the location of international dry ports.(2)Improvement and optimization of planning method for functional layout of dry ports.A specific step-by-step planning manual for layout of functions has been identified by using SLP method.Taking into account of historical data and with the used of Markov Chain,the traditional SLP method has been optimized.The study completed the grey estimation model for dry ports cargo flow,increased the predicative accuracy of randomized fluctuation of data sequence and conducted quantitative calculation of cargo flow of dry ports.The same has indicated that the optimized SLP method is a better solution to estimate the functional areas of dry ports,reasonable layout of functional areas can be readily decided with the correlational analysis of logics and non-logistics.The study can scientifically guide the planning and development of dry ports out of which operation efficiency can be significantly improved.(3)Findings of indicator of dry ports land development intensity.It has created a predicative model of combination and Markov forecasting on logistic flow,which has compensated the low accuracy of combination forecasting method on uncertain data sampl e.The land development intensity indicator is corrected by AHP.A calculation model is proposed in terms of total land area and area of core functions for dry ports.It has shown that the total required land area calculated through the Markov Chain-PENT method is sufficient enough to meet the functions of dry ports wherein waste of land use is also effectively avoided.The findings can be a practical approach to estimate the size of construction of dry ports.(4)Quantitative study of Xi'an dry port as an example has been carried out by using Bayesian,MC-SLP and MC-PENT to the extent of planning of location for Xi'an dry port and associated risk assessment,planning the layout of functional areas and system of indicators of land development intensity.The study has shown that low risk profile is associated with building Xi'an dry port at Xi'an city which is a safe and feasible option.Layout of functional areas based on MC-SLP method is fairly more rational.The size of core function area and theoretical land development intensity which are worked out by MC-PENT method prove to be practical to guide construction planning.The adoption of spatial genetic theory in terms of planning methodology is capable of compensating the shortcomings of qualitative analysis and completing multi-layered quantitative analysis,which casts theoretical and practical significance to the planning of dry ports.